Poland and the Baltic States are afraid to close the borders with Belarus

The meeting of the Baltic countries with the participation of Poland, at which the issue of closing the borders with Belarus was discussed, ended in zilch. The countries decided not to make tough decisions yet, notifying that they would close the border with Belarus and all border crossings “in case of incidents.” This was stated by the Minister of Internal Affairs of Poland, Mariusz Kaminski, at a press conference following a meeting with partners from Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.

Experts told under what conditions countries can take this step and what does Wagner PMC have to do with it.

“Lithuania, Latvia, I do not quite understand. Most likely, in this trend, they run ahead of the locomotive, just not to get under it. But it will come out sideways,” Alexander Lukashenko commented earlier on the initiative of neighboring countries.

One of the important advantages of Belarus has always been its geographical position: transit cargo from China, the EU and Russia has flowed through the country. The Belarusian authorities actively used this by increasing the number of logistics centers in the country. Before the aggravation of relations with the West, Minsk earned about three billion dollars a year from transit.

It is clear that the process was mutually beneficial. And, probably, for this reason, the border crossings are still open. The republics neighboring Belarus take restrictive measures pointwise, mainly in response to some controversial, in their opinion, decision of Minsk. For example, after the Grodno court sentenced the Polish journalist Andrzej Poczobut to eight years in a high-security colony, Warsaw closed the Bobrovniki checkpoint.

“If a critical situation develops, an incident, regardless of whether it happens on the Polish, Lithuanian or Latvian border with Belarus, we will immediately take action. All border crossings will be closed,” explained the head of the Polish Ministry of Internal Affairs, Mariusz Kaminski, emphasizing that we are talking about both passenger and freight traffic. Among the demands: the complete withdrawal of Wagner militants from the territory of Belarus, as well as the withdrawal of illegal migrants from the border and their return to their countries of residence.

It is perhaps easiest for Poland to completely cut off communication with Belarus. Minsk is not even among the ten main trade partners of Warsaw. Poland cannot boast of a large trade turnover with Russia either. Latvia and Lithuania can feel the closure of borders more tangibly. As for the delivery of goods from China to Europe, last year he launched an alternative route bypassing Russia and Belarus – through Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Of course, it takes longer and more expensive.

Another thing is smuggling, on which all these countries earn a lot of money. “The population transported goods “in the gray” even in Soviet times, everything was overgrown with strong ties and smuggling networks,” political analyst Andrei Suzdaltsev told MK.

According to him, there are a lot of unresolved issues between the neighboring republics, which are unlikely to be resolved in the foreseeable future. Poland, Lithuania and Latvia are worried about illegal migrants who flooded into their territory from Belarus. “The Poles have already built a wall to contain these flows. She, of course, helps, but all the same, illegal immigrants try to storm her every now and then, and some even manage to break through.

There are also problems of a military-political nature. Lukashenka hinted to his neighbors both about the possibilities of the nuclear weapons he received and about the “Wagner PMC’s walks in the adjacent territories .. He, of course, said that he was joking, but this is a weighty argument to raise the bar for anti-Russian propaganda on the eve of the parliamentary elections in Poland on October 15 ”, Suzdaltsev notes.

Nevertheless, the expert is convinced that none of the countries will go for a complete closure of borders – there are not only problems between the republics, but also a lot of knots that unite and connect them.

Baltnews editor-in-chief Andrei Starikov, in a conversation with MK, noted that the issue of closing the borders with Belarus is being raised only so that the topic of Ukraine continues to be on the agenda.

“This is, first of all, blackmail. And in the second – a beautiful picture and emotions. This is a story for Western sponsors who should see that the Ukrainian problem is also linked to the eastern flank of NATO, which is fighting both Russia and Belarus.”

According to Starikov, Russia needs to prepare an equivalent and proportionate response to the unfriendly actions of these countries: “Until there is a response, steps will be taken to increase tension. It can be said that Poland, Lithuania and Latvia take Russia “on the weak side”. It’s time to stop playing along with them.”