Parliamentary opposition parties have lost up to 40% of voters in five years

In the elections to the legislative assemblies of 16 regions, parliamentary opposition parties – the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, the Liberal Democratic Party and A Just Russia – for Truth – lost a total of 1,050,488 votes compared to the 2018 election campaign, Vedomosti calculated. These are votes lost according to party lists in all regions except four new ones.

In the 2023 elections, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation managed to receive the support of 920,541 voters, which is 40% less than in 2018 (1,544,183). In Bashkiria, the communists received 180,096 votes (100,414 less compared to 2018), Irkutsk region – 68,644 (-98,115), Ulyanovsk – 52,756 (-93,734), Rostov region – 155,523 (-92,180) and Vladimirskaya – 37,572 (-50,550). The party lost the most votes in these regions. In total, the party lost 623,642 votes in 16 regions.

The LDPR lost the support of 290,358 citizens: the number of votes cast in favor of its lists decreased from 966,542 to 676,184. The party lost the most voters in the Vladimir region – 49,589, Rostov – 48,919, Irkutsk – 34,916, Bashkiria – 29,506 and Arkhangelsk region – 27,699. In total, the party lost 30% of the votes compared to 2018.

“A Just Russia – for Truth” received 465,679 votes in the 2023 elections. This is a 23% decrease compared to 2018, when 602,167 voters voted for them (-136,488). Although the party improved its results in Bashkiria – 32,195 more votes than in the last election – it lost voters in other regions. In the Rostov region, the results worsened by 40,965 votes, in Yakutia – 22,896, in the Vladimir region – 20,212, in the Kuzbass – 21,023, in the Arkhangelsk region – 19,220.

The New People party was registered in 2020. In the elections to the legislative assembly in 2023, it received 390,225 votes.

Against the background of the general losses of the parliamentary opposition, United Russia gained 4,678,843 votes, which is 936,466 more than in the same regions in 2018. The party in power has significantly improved its positions everywhere except Kalmykia.

The 2018 elections took place during a period of “vivid protest voting against raising the retirement age,” and the 2022–2023 elections. “This is the time of a special operation and “a war declared on us by the West,” First Deputy Chairman of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation Central Committee Yuri Afonin explained to Vedomosti. Now society is consolidated, the conditions are completely different, he added.

Afonin also says that, according to the party, in this electoral cycle in a number of regions, elections were held with violations, and therefore the party is not going to recognize them. Despite this, according to Afonin, at the level of legislative assemblies, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation still managed to overtake its competitors: the LDPR and A Just Russia collectively gained as many mandates as the communists received alone. “Despite all the attempts of the authorities, which helped the LDPR at the regional level, we maintained our position as the main opposition force,” he concluded.

Deputy head of the LDPR faction Yaroslav Nilov explained the deterioration in the party’s results for several reasons. In 2018, there was a lower turnout, at the same time there was a pension reform, there was a different ratio of parties – “New People” did not exist at all then, he explained.

In addition, today’s electoral preferences, according to Nilov, are influenced by “a special military operation, government action, external threats.” In this regard, he concluded, given the unequal initial conditions in 2018 and 2023, it is “incorrect” to compare the results. At the same time, the deputy head of the faction was pleased with the results of this year’s voting, noting that the party has “reincarnated.” Among the reasons that could influence the decline in the popularity of the LDPR, the death of its former leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky is not considered.

The head of the Moscow branch of A Just Russia, Dmitry Gusev, also referred to the fact that the situations are now radically different: apart from the special operation, DEG was not used in 2018, which directly correlates with the lower turnout then. Now, according to Gusev, “all circumstances work for the party in power” and this is normal. “How can we criticize our government if we are sitting in the same trench and helping the guys at the front?” – Gusev was indignant.

A source close to the Just Russia party explained the party’s failure this way: “What the old Just Russia team is trying to use as populism has not surprised or inspired anyone for a long time; their format is already outdated.” During a special operation, previous political structures do not work; people need “either real action or total populism.”

The results of the current elections are a consequence of a special operation, the effect of rallying around the flag, deputy chairman of the Yabloko party Ivan Bolshakov told Vedomosti (the party did not participate in the legislative elections). A representative of New People did not respond to a request sent by Vedomosti.

The reason for these results is the passivity of the parties, which either do not remind themselves or are focused on fighting among themselves, says Mikhail Vinogradov, president of the St. Petersburg Politics Foundation. “Now, in general, there is a period of decline in the motivation of both these parties and their supporters, who are demobilized and are in no hurry to go to the polls,” he said. Let us note that parties are not always nominated equally for elections in the regions.

In 2018, there was a rise in protest against the backdrop of the announced pension reform, recalled political scientist Alexander Kynev. Against this background, the results of the last elections were the most successful for the Russian systemic opposition in the last 10 years, he pointed out. Now there has been a return to a more “usual state”. “In 2018 there was only one voting day, in 2023 there will be three. Besides this, there was no DEG either,” Kynev explained.

The loss of voters from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation is directly related to the special operation in Ukraine, the expert believes. The Communist electorate was complex: one part was nostalgic for the Soviet period, the other was protesting and voted for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation as the strongest alternative to the ruling party. “Because of the special operation, two wings fell off at once: now it is more logical for one part to support the government that implements their patriotic agenda. The protest wing left due to rejection of the party’s position on the special operation,” he concluded.

According to political scientist Alexander Nemtsev, parties used to attract undecided citizens with their proposals and alternative development ideas. “Citizens now do not understand what these parties offer and how their proposals differ from United Russia. If you ask a voter how the programs of the LDPR, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and the Right Russia differ from each other, he will not answer you,” explains the expert. At the same time, Nemtsev emphasizes that now in Russia as such there is practically no non-systemic opposition.