Oxford professor warns of COVID-19 return after holidays

The winter holidays are coming to an end – and against this background, it is worth heeding the warnings about the return of COVID. There are new fears that coronavirus could spread across Britain next week as a highly infectious new strain sweeps the country, an Oxford professor says.

A rise in COVID-19 cases is likely to be expected, driven by a highly infectious strain of the virus and children returning to classrooms, an infectious disease expert has warned.

According to the Daily Mail, Professor Sir Andrew Pollard, professor of infection and immunity at the University of Oxford, said he expected “infections in the population to rise over the next week.”

Despite recently published UK Public Health Agency data showing a decline in the number of positive COVID-19 tests ahead of the New Year, Professor Pollard warned that there is often a “decline in cases over festive periods”.

“It’s really what’s going to happen next when kids go back to school,” he explained. “Most people have taken New Year’s off and are starting to get back to work,” he told the Mirror.

There were 7,862 positive cases of COVID-19 in England in the week to December 27, according to the UK’s Health Security Agency. In the seven days to December 22, there were 179 coronavirus deaths recorded on the death certificate.

A highly infectious variant of COVID-19, JN.1, is currently circulating and accounts for the majority of all confirmed cases in the UK. Data shows it is three times more common than the next strain.

“It’s the one that’s spreading better now, and that’s why it’s become dominant,” Professor Pollard explained. “It’s just better than the other variants that exist at the moment.”

The cycle of new variants emerging to monopolize their share of coronavirus cases has been repeating itself since the pandemic erupted in 2020, the expert said.

“They just happen to be fitter and knock out everyone else. They also do this because they are better at avoiding the immune responses that we have in our noses and throats that would prevent older variants from causing infections,” he said.

Professor Pollard added: Although JN.1 is highly infectious, there is no convincing evidence that it is more lethal than previous strains. The rise in cases is however likely to increase existing “pressure on the NHS”.

He said he believed it was unlikely the UK would need to reintroduce measures similar to those introduced at the height of the pandemic.

It is likely that COVID-19 will continue to circulate for the foreseeable future. “There’s no reason why it should disappear completely,” Professor Pollard said.

The expert explained that the virus has shown itself to be able to adapt to immunity and generate new variants “that can still spread even though we have an immune population.”

“My prediction is that, rather like the flu, it will be with us for the rest of our lives. The uncertainty is whether this will become a winter peak with no change for the rest of the year, or whether it will continue slightly unpredictable behavior in waves at different times.”

Professor Pollard said there had been significant focus on coronavirus during the pandemic, but he believed “influenza remains a greater threat to weaker people in society”.

Most new COVID-19 variants are likely to cause only a “nasty cold” or “respiratory tract infection” for most, although this could result in vulnerable people needing hospital treatment: “It’s important to say that over the past two years “The likelihood of contracting the flu has increased.”