Online catches up with offline – Newspaper Kommersant No. 159 (7360) of 08/31/2022

About 60% of Moscow residents know about the upcoming municipal elections in September and plan to take part in them, and almost half of them are ready to vote online, according to a survey by the Russian Field sociological service. Sociologists predict a higher turnout than in the previous 2017 elections. But additional factors may turn on, and their effect is unpredictable, the expert warns.

Over the past two weeks, the proportion of Muscovites who know that the elections of municipal deputies are scheduled for September 11 has grown by almost 25 percentage points (p.p.) – now 57.3% of respondents are aware of the upcoming vote, follows from the seventh wave of research by Russian Field (an initiative street survey was conducted on August 24-26, 2022 among 2 thousand residents of Moscow; the statistical error does not exceed 2.19%).

59.5% of respondents announced their intention to take part in the voting against 57.5% two weeks earlier: 32.3% said that they would definitely take part in the elections, another 27.2% would rather do so.

33.5% of respondents do not plan to vote, their share fell by 2.9 percentage points. The desire to vote grows with age, income level and indicators of respondents’ satisfaction with the current situation. Low-income people and young people are less likely to declare their intention to go to the polls.

At the same time, it is necessary to distinguish between real and declared turnout, emphasizes Russian Field project manager Artemy Vvedensky, the real turnout is always lower, because many have cases that interfere with the trip to the polling station. This year, he adds, elections are taking place under completely new conditions, and experts disagree about how a special operation in Ukraine could affect the vote. Some say that such an agenda will activate the electorate and the patriotic upsurge will force more voters to come to the polling stations. Others, on the contrary, believe that the special operation will divert people’s attention from the elections. AT

Russian Field suggest that the turnout in Moscow will still be higher than in the last elections, but significantly lower than the declared one – about 20%, the sociologist adds (14.8% of voters took part in the 2017 elections).

“According to my experience, it is absolutely impossible to mechanically add up those who answered that they “will definitely come” and “will come soon,” agrees political scientist Ekaterina Kurbangaleeva. and half of those who “will rather take part.” As a result, we have about 35%, which is closer to the real situation. Further, various factors are included: the weather (it can play both a plus and a minus), additional mobilization factors and external factors. Although the turnout of 35% for municipal elections is still unlikely, the expert believes.

Political scientist Pyotr Miloserdov, referring to the results of his own research, predicts turnout at 11.5%. This is the experience of past elections, he explains, if we are talking about a municipal campaign with an inertial scenario, then a reduction factor of 0.4 should be used for turnout polls. When applied to the results of the Russian Field poll, this means that less than half of the 32.3% who declared their firm intention to do so will reach the polls, the expert explains, that is, the turnout can be estimated at 12.9%, which is not very different from his own ratings. Those who “rather take part in the voting” should be attributed to a well-known factor in sociology, which implies the readiness of respondents to give a socially approved answer, Mr. Miloserdov believes. According to him, with a drop in turnout, the proportion of voters ready to use remote electronic voting (DEV) will also increase: “A significant part of the turnout will be the electorate loyal to the authorities, for them the DEG is an acceptable way to support the authorities. I think that at least 4.5% of those 11.5% will vote remotely.”

Now, according to Russian Field, 48.7% of those who intend to participate in the elections are ready to vote online, which is 6 percentage points more than in the first ten days of August.

DEGs are preferred by young people (up to 66% in the age group of 30–44) and Muscovites with above-average incomes (59%). In turn, up to 75% of respondents in the 60+ category and those with low income support the in-person form of voting. For supporters of the DEG, the decisive argument in favor of it is the convenience of the electronic form of voting, another 17% each note its modernity and the opportunity to receive gifts. In-person voting is most often chosen due to the fact that it is customary (54% of respondents).

However, predicting the real number of those who will take part in the DEG is even more difficult than the turnout, admits Artemy Vvedensky, because in the big elections this tool was used only once, in 2021. Now almost half of the respondents say they are ready to use the DEG – probably, the advertising of electronic voting affects, the sociologist suggests. But, as with the turnout at the polling station, some voters will eventually drop out, adds Mr. Vvedensky. “DEG is attractive to all confident computer users. Unfortunately, in Russia it is often only young people,” he notes.

As for the party preferences of Muscovites, 50.3% of those who go to the polls would vote for the United Russia candidate (+6.1 percentage points in two weeks), the Communist Party of the Russian Federation is in second place (11.6% ), the third place belongs to the Liberal Democratic Party (7.7%). “New People” with 4.5% of support is slightly ahead of “Yabloko”, which can count on the votes of 3.1% of voters.

Anastasia Kornya