Officials discussed targets for presidential elections

At a seminar in Senezh on April 29-31, the leadership of the Kremlin’s domestic political bloc told the relevant vice-governors that the upcoming presidential election campaign would be essentially a “referendum type.” According to one of the participants of the event, this is explained by officials of the Presidential Administration (AP) as follows: inside the country, the rating of the head of state is very high, and society is consolidated.

“The main ideologeme in the current situation is that all [и так] follow the president,” he says. In this case, the only question is what the turnout will be, this Vedomosti source notes: “It should be commensurate with or higher than the previous one.” The turnout in 2018 was 67.5%, and the result of Vladimir Putin was 76.7%. The discussion of the turnout is confirmed by another interlocutor of Vedomosti.

Another seminar participant says that regional officials are guided not only by the turnout of 70%, but also by the result of 75%. The same reference point was reported by Kommersant sources and RBCfamiliar with the course of the seminar. At the same time, as one of the participants in the event told Vedomosti, it is important not only to get the result, but also to confirm its legitimacy: “Control will be determined by post-election polls.”

Officials of the Kremlin’s internal political bloc of various ranks talked about the need to comply with four different KPIs for the territories. This is to ensure the victory of the pro-presidential forces, reduce the level of protest potential, ensure social and political stability, as well as ensure the growth of the level of confidence in the president. Taken together, this should have a positive effect in 2024.

One part of the seminar was devoted to the “ideological outline of the campaign”. This (including the image of the future) was told by Alexander Kharichev, head of the presidential department for ensuring the activities of the State Council, and his deputy Boris Rapoport spoke about the achievements of the head of state in the context of “it was/was/will be”. The ideology of the presidential campaign will be based on three theses: opportunities (that is, hope), traditions (confidence), achievements (pride), says one of Vedomosti’s interlocutors.

Seminars for vice-governors make it possible to non-publicly broadcast the basic meanings of the campaign, including “red lines”, identify effective and adequate situations, technologies, and implement training programs, says Dmitry Orlov, director general of the Agency for Political and Economic Communications.

The nature of the presidential campaign will be close to that of a referendum, he says: “The expected dominant themes of ‘unity’, ‘cohesion’ and ‘common enemy’, combined with Vladimir Putin’s very high ratings and the use of remote e-voting, are likely to result in a leading candidate over 80%”. Under such conditions, opposition candidates are likely to target limited niche campaigns, he adds.

Maxim Ivanov participated in the preparation of the article