Not all streets are equally safe

In Russia in 2022, 2% fewer crimes were committed than a year earlier. Analysts of the To Be Precise project, having analyzed the data from the legal statistics portal of the Prosecutor General’s Office, attribute this to the fact that “several hundred thousand young men have been taken out of everyday life.” However, other experts do not share this version. The project “To be precise”, based on open information, presented its rating of the criminal well-being of Russian regions, as well as a comprehensive analysis of the state of crime. Researchers fear that they will not be able to continue collecting data, since the Prosecutor General’s Office stopped publishing statistics from January 1, 2023. However, on August 16, the Ministry of Internal Affairs published its data for the first seven months of 2023, from which it also follows that the number of crimes in Russia during this period was 2.3% less than in the same period last year.

Experts from the To Be Precise project of the Need Help charity fund calculated the rating of regions by crime rate for 2022. It should be noted that project analysts systematically study social problems in Russia: Kommersant has already talked about the rating of Russian regions in terms of the well-being of the older generation and the all-Russian rating of alcohol and drug use.

In the course of their work, the authors of the rating excluded five regions that border on the territory of military operations and are regularly shelled. These are Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk regions, the Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol. Six republics of the North Caucasus were also removed from the comparison: Kabardino-Balkaria, North Ossetia, Dagestan, Karachay-Cherkessia, Ingushetia and Chechnya. Analysts believe that the same well-being of all indicators in these regions differs markedly from the general Russian picture and looks like an anomaly.

There are 21 regions on the list of disadvantaged regions. The most difficult situation in 2022 is in the Amur Region, the Jewish Autonomous Region, the Trans-Baikal Territory and Tuva. All of these regions have been among the least well-off since 2014, when the To Be Precise project first published the rating. The subjects are united by low urbanization, low living standards and a strong migration outflow of the population, sociologist Kirill Titaev notes. Sociologist Aleksey Firsov adds that in these regions, primarily in the Trans-Baikal Territory, “the presence of former prisoners is more intense.”

Tuva, the authors of the study emphasize, has been and remains the most dangerous place to live, despite the fact that violent crime is also decreasing in it. The number of those killed per 100,000 population in the republic is approximately the same as in a number of Latin American countries – 20 (on average in Russia – 4 per 100,000). There are 186 people per 100,000 who died or received serious bodily harm (the average for Russia is 37 per 100,000). The most prosperous situation is in the Moscow and Ryazan regions, Adygea and Kalmykia – and so it has been for the past few years.

In addition to the rating of the criminal well-being of the regions, the analysts of the project “To be precise” prepared a comprehensive analysis of the state of crime (all regions are already included in it). They note that the number of crimes related to drug trafficking increased most of all – by 72% – in Russia in 2022 (from 4.5 thousand in 2021 to 7.8 thousand in 2022). As in previous years, more than half of the reported crimes are theft and fraud. At the same time, the total number of criminal manifestations decreased slightly: in total, 1.9 million crimes were registered in 2022, which is 2% less than in 2021. This is due, among other things, to the fact that several hundred thousand young men have been taken out of everyday life, the authors of the study are sure. Aleksey Firsov, however, does not agree with this version, since it suggests that among those who have gone to the SVO, the proportion of criminals is higher than the national average. On the other hand, the return to peaceful life of people, “for whom, in a sense, the barriers to violence have been lowered,” may affect the growth of crime, Mr. Firsov believes.

The level of almost all violent crimes also decreased, the researchers note, with the exception of the category “murder and attempted murder” (7.6 thousand of them were registered in 2022 against 7.3 thousand in 2021). However, this figure has grown significantly in Moscow. According to the Prosecutor General’s Office, 268 murders and attempts were registered in the capital in 2021, and 413 (+54%) in 2022. The authors note that growth began in October 2022, when Russia annexed the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions. The researchers suggested that the metropolitan statistics could be replenished at the expense of new territories that are not in the statistical forms, although records are kept there. However, at the Main Directorate of the Ministry of Internal Affairs for Moscow, they did not respond to a corresponding request from Kommersant at the time of publication.

The number and rate of murders and assassinations have also increased in regions bordering the war zone. The most noticeable increase in the Belgorod region is 96% (from 52 crimes in 2021 to 102 in 2022). These territories are shelled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and the shelling is recorded, among other things, as murders and attempted murders, the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation in the Belgorod Region confirmed to the project “To be precise.”

Analysts of the project “To Be Precise” note the growth of crimes committed in the Russian Federation by migrants. In 2022, 291 murders committed by foreign nationals were preliminary investigated. A year earlier – 247 murders. Thus, the growth was 18%. The number of “grievous bodily injuries resulting in the death of the victim” has dropped from 107 in 2021 to 89 in 2022. It should be noted that in the spring, the head of the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation, Alexander Bastrykin, said that in 2022 the number of crimes committed by migrants had tripled. He especially noted a five-fold increase in the number of murders and intentional infliction of grievous bodily harm, which led to the death of the victim, compared to the previous year.

In some regions, the study says, the proportion of crimes committed by foreigners is significantly higher than the national average: in Moscow (17% of pre-investigated crimes in 2022 are foreign citizens), St. Petersburg (12%), the Moscow region (12%). This is explained by the fact that traditionally there are the most migrants here. According to migration expert Vyacheslav Postavnin, it is rather difficult to assess the real level of crime among migrants: “If analysts also include articles regulating the stay of foreigners in Russia, then these figures do not speak of socially dangerous crime among migrants.” But the head of the National Anti-Corruption Committee and the Presidential Council for Human Rights, Kirill Kabanov, is sure that the number of serious crimes committed by migrants will grow: “In Russia, “ethnic gangs” are being formed that commit crimes in order to demonstrate their superiority. It’s becoming a systemic problem.”

Analysts of the To Be Precise project emphasize that in 2023, detailed data by regions and crimes have ceased to be published, and data requests are denied. It should be noted that the portal of legal statistics notes that the publication of data has been suspended since January 1, 2023 due to “finalization of functionality”. At the same time, the Interior Ministry on August 16 released its own statistics for the first seven months of 2023. It follows from them that during this period, 2.3% fewer crimes were committed in Russia than in the same period in 2022, and material damage from criminal acts decreased by 39.6%. The number of crimes against a person decreased by 6.3%, against property – by 3.2%. In particular, burglaries decreased by 28.2%, vehicle theft – by 9.3%. The number of acts involving the use of weapons, ammunition and explosives decreased by 4.5%. The streets, according to police statistics, have become safer – the number of crimes in public places has decreased (by 9.3%), street robberies (14%), robberies and thefts (26.4%), hooliganism (4.2%). In general, the number of cybercrimes has increased – they have increased by 27.9% – but there is also a decrease in their individual categories: in particular, the number of frauds using electronic means of payment has decreased by 24.8%.

Natalia Kostarnova, Emilia Gabdullina