Niger closes airspace amid threat of intervention

The military leadership of Niger closed the country’s airspace due to the threat of a military invasion. This decision was announced by the representative of the junta, Amadou Abraman, in a televised address on August 6 – a few hours before the expiration of the ultimatum put forward by the West African regional bloc ECOWAS (includes 15 states) with the aim of returning deposed President Mohamed Bazum to power. Abraman added that the two neighboring states were pulling their troops to the borders of Niger to prepare for intervention, but did not give details and promised a “vigorous and immediate response” in the event of an attack.

On July 31, the ECOWAS Foreign Ministers issued a joint statement, according to which the authorities of Nigeria, Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire expressed their readiness to send their troops to Niger. After three days of negotiations in the Nigerian capital of Abuja, on August 4, the chiefs of staff of the armies of the countries participating in the bloc agreed on a plan for a possible military intervention. True, the next day the Senate (upper house of parliament) of Nigeria did not approve the idea of ​​using its armed forces against a neighboring state. The Senate urged the Nigerian executive branch (presidency of ECOWAS in 2023) to “encourage and strengthen political and diplomatic capacity to break the deadlock.”

Not all of Niger’s neighbors were belligerent. Solidarity with Niger was previously expressed by Mali and Burkina Faso, where the government also changed as a result of the coup, after which their membership in ECOWAS was suspended. On August 7, these countries sent their delegations to the capital of the country to negotiate with the military leadership, according to the Niger Foreign Ministry. The idea of ​​military intervention was also condemned by Guinea, Algeria, Libya and Chad. Bordering Niger, Chad has one of the most capable armies in the region. With all these states, Niger has retained direct international flights. Although, according to the Flightradar24 portal, not a single aircraft was seen in the sky over Niger on August 7.

After the closure of Niger’s airspace, the French company Air France announced the suspension until August 11 of its flights to Burkina Faso and Mali. A spokesman for the German defense minister said the closure of the skies over Niger had created difficulties for the withdrawal of German military forces from neighboring Mali. At the same time, Italian Foreign Minister (its troops are stationed in Niger) Antonio Tajani, in an interview with the La Stampa newspaper, called on ECOWAS participants to extend the ultimatum and use diplomatic tools to resolve the crisis. Currently, Italy is evacuating its troops from Niger to their homeland: on August 5, the authorities announced the return of 65 soldiers of the Italian army and 10 US troops. 254 Italian, about 1,500 French and about 1,000 American soldiers remain in Niger. They are involved in counter-terrorist operations in the region.

On August 4, Niger announced the denunciation of military agreements with France and demanded that Paris withdraw its troops from the country within 30 days. The French refused to obey the demands of the military regime, saying that French soldiers were in Niger “at the request of the legitimate authorities of the country on the basis of signed agreements.” The rebel authorities also suspended the export of uranium and gold to France.

Today, the likelihood of ECOWAS intervention in Niger remains high, but for all participants it will be a zero-sum game, notes Nikolai Shcherbakov, a leading researcher at the Institute of Asian and African Studies at Moscow State University, professor at the Higher School of Economics. “The bloc needs to take measures so as not to lose face, but possible hostilities will represent a completely unnecessary armed conflict. It will create a very big imbalance in an already unstable region suffering from the actions of jihadist groups,” the expert noted.

The countries of West Africa are poor, continues Shcherbakov, and their population does not support any military action, knowing full well the negative effect of them. At the same time, there is no need to talk about special support in Niger for the military, led by the commander of the presidential guard, Abdurahman Tchiani. According to Shcherbakov, the population of Niger is patient with such political zigzags, but they, too, are tired. “What needs to be taken into account, it was the Bazum presidency that put an end to the period of relative anarchy in Niger, and the recovery of the economy simply did not have time to happen due to lack of time,” the expert concludes.

A full-scale military escalation is still far away, says Rakhimbek Bobokhonov, a researcher at the Center for Civilizational and Regional Studies at the Institute for African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The expert recalled that Algeria, Mali and Burkina Faso spoke out against the use of the army in Niger, and in Nigeria, which chairs ECOWAS, there were problems with parliamentary approval of the intervention. “Senegal, which could potentially participate in the intervention, is itself experiencing problems with internal unrest. This means that the military escalation is more of a word than a real threat,” the expert said. According to Bobokhonov, the escalation is beneficial to France, which is still undermining the situation in the region. “But whether she will be able to bring her efforts to the end is a big question,” he doubts.