New sanctions against Russia baffled Europe

The EU has limited room to maneuver as governments worry about rising inflation and energy costs, Politico notes. According to the publication, the European hawks towards Russia are met with an increasingly cool response to their requests to continue subjecting Moscow to new punishments.

The latest proposal, coming from the EU’s eastern flank, which has long been begging its neighbors to take a tougher stance on Moscow, is to ban Russian tourists from entering the EU, in an attempt to cut off the country’s wealthier class from its usual tourist destination. But as European defense and foreign ministers meet informally in Prague, officials admit that even this relatively inexpensive and low-risk initiative is not attracting much interest, let alone tougher new measures.

Instead, ministers are expected to simply strike a political deal that would, in principle, slow down the process of issuing Russian visas and make it more expensive. In the run-up to the Prague meeting, Germany and France tried to set the tone by sending a memorandum to the capitals of EU member states arguing that the visa ban would only alienate Russians and expose divisions between some Western leaders and a group of predominantly Eastern European governments.

According to Politico, the Paris-Berlin memorandum states that the EU “needs to wage a strategic fight for the ‘hearts and minds’ of the Russian population – at least for those segments that have not yet completely estranged themselves from the West.”

This argument angered those who pushed for a wide-ranging ban on Russian travel to Europe.

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said in an interview that extensive restrictions on tourist visas are “something that harms Russia” but “does not harm the European side.”

The debate highlighted the European bloc’s limited room to maneuver as governments worry about rising inflation and energy costs. And this portends a possible shift in the dynamics of EU capitals in the coming months.

As a senior European diplomat said, speaking of sanctions against Russia, “almost all options have been used and it is really difficult to find effective measures now that would not cause us more harm.”

Two diplomatic sources in the EU said they were not sure how aggressively the coalition could advance its stance on visa issues.

Saying he finds it “deeply provocative that Russian tourists can holiday in Europe,” Danish Foreign Minister Jeppe Kofod is calling on the EU to take “the toughest stance” on visas.

But Germany and France, the EU’s two most powerful countries, said they “want to maintain a legal framework that allows, inter alia, students, artists, scientists, professionals – whether or not they run the risk of being prosecuted for political reasons – to travel in EU”.

Berlin and Paris also warned “against far-reaching restrictions on our visa policy to prevent fueling the Russian narrative and causing inadvertent flag rallying and/or alienation of future generations.”

Nevertheless, European capitals stressed that the EU must “maintain and expand our sanctions against the Russian political, military and economic elite” and called financial and military support for Ukraine “a central element” of EU military policy.

The result is expected to be an agreement to suspend the EU’s visa facilitation deal with Moscow, which has made it easier for Russians to obtain EU visas for years. The deal will only constitute a “political agreement” as this week’s meeting is just an informal meeting.

Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto, whose country has seen a surge in visa applications and arrivals from Russia and now advocates a significant reduction, but not a total ban, on visas, said he expects officials to eventually have to return up for discussion in months.

“My next assumption,” the Finnish minister said in an interview, “is that we will return to these visa issues, because in the fall, of course, it will be difficult to determine new possible sanctions against Russia.”

Indeed, after successive waves of sanctions, European officials have largely run out of ideas about what measures to introduce that would hurt the Kremlin’s interests without hurting those of Europe.

Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky, whose country currently presides over the EU Council, admitted recently that no major new sanctions are currently planned. “With regard to sanctions, I think we have now entered a phase where we need to be patient,” he told reporters. And noting that some new measures could be taken, the minister said that “big things have already happened.”

As European governments and citizens become more concerned about the economic situation at home, there may be less incentive for officials in the capitals of some EU countries to make big gestures in foreign policy.

But some officials have railed against the notion that Europe is less willing to place the burden of sanctions on Russia. “Absolutely not,” said one Western European diplomat when asked if the pace of sanctions was slowing down.

“We have clearly demonstrated all along that we are united and resolute on this issue. We continue to work to fill loopholes where they exist and ensure that the sanctions are fully implemented,” the diplomat said. “What we have placed under sanctions is already quite a lot. This should not be undermined in any way.”

Estonian Prime Minister Kallas admitted she was worried about Ukraine conflict fatigue, but insisted she did not believe the visa debate heralded new divisions between EU capitals. “Before every sanctions package comes the question that ‘now you are no longer united’,” she said. Nevertheless, “every time we united, we surprised ourselves, but we also negatively surprised Russia.”