Negotiations on unblocking land exports of Ukrainian grain began in Poland

Poland, Hungary and Slovakia banned the import of Ukrainian grains, vegetables, fruits, dairy and meat products by April 17. The immediate reason was the dissatisfaction of local farmers – in the conditions of duty-free import of agricultural products from Ukraine, their goods were not sold. Bulgaria may soon resort to restrictive measures: the Minister of Agriculture of this country, Yavor Gechev, has already stated that this issue will be considered by the government.

The European Commission (EC) is calling for the restrictions to be lifted, calling the decisions of Eastern European governments “illegal”. On April 17, the first talks on this issue were held in Warsaw, Polish Minister of Agriculture Robert Telus told TVP Info. They are attended by representatives of regulators from Eastern European countries, the Ukrainian side is represented by the Minister of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine Mykola Solsky. Representatives of the EU have not yet taken part in these negotiations. At the time of delivery of the issue, their results were not known.

The problem of overland import of Ukrainian agricultural products to the EU escalated a month before the expiration of the Black Sea grain deal. According to these agreements, 27.7 million tons of grain were exported by sea from the ports of Southern Ukraine, 40% – to the EU countries. On April 13, Russia warned of a possible non-resumption of the deal if the problems of exporting agricultural raw materials and fertilizers from the EU are not resolved. On April 7, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke about Moscow’s readiness to use the capabilities of Turkey and Qatar to organize the export of its products.

On April 17, Ukraine’s Reconstruction Ministry said on Facebook (owned by Meta, which is banned in the Russian Federation) that the grain deal was “under threat of suspension” for the second time in nine months due to the failure of inspections of ships exporting grain. U.S. Ambassador to Kyiv Bridget Brink said more than 50 vessels are awaiting permission to enter Ukrainian ports.

Eastern European governments have been demonstrating dissatisfaction with the flow of Ukrainian grain along the land “solidarity routes” organized by the EU in 2022 since the beginning of 2023. On January 30, a report prepared by Poland was published on the website of the Council of Europe, where the increased supply of Ukrainian grain to the EU was called the cause of serious difficulties for European farmers , especially in countries neighboring Ukraine. For 11 months of 2022, imports of Ukrainian corn to the EU increased by 75%, wheat – 10 times, sunflower – 70 times, leading to overstocking and falling prices. On April 17, the head of the Polish Peasant Party, Adam Jarubas, announced a surplus of grain of 7 million tons, stored only in Poland. On March 31, Poland, Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria and Slovakia demanded that the EC intervene in the situation; on April 3, they asked to increase compensation funds for farmers and redirect Ukrainian grain to Africa and the Middle East at their expense. On March 22, the EC decided to provide 56 million euros to help farmers in Poland, Romania and Bulgaria, and on April 5 extended duty-free imports of Ukrainian grains to the EU until June 2024.

On April 15, the Polish government banned both the import and transit of Ukrainian grain and other agricultural products. On the same day, the Hungarian government announced a similar ban. On April 16, Bulgaria decided to consider the possibility of a ban on the import of Ukrainian agricultural products, and on April 17, Slovakia introduced such a ban. The Czech Republic may also join the restrictions on the export of Ukrainian grain – opposition representatives in the country are already calling for this. The EC representative called the decisions of Warsaw, Budapest and Bratislava “unacceptable” and “illegal”. According to Brussels, trade policy is the responsibility of the EU, not its members. The official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, stressed on April 17 that the ban on the import of Ukrainian grain to Poland is indicative “from the point of view of exposing the imaginary concern of Westerners for the starving.”

The decision to ban imports has angered the EC, and one can speak of at least a new stage in the conflict between Poland, Hungary and Brussels, says Kirill Temeretsky, an expert at the HSE Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies. The coordination of Hungary, Poland and Slovakia, the expert continues, indicates a return to the consensus of the Visegrad Four. If the Czech Republic joins them, we can talk about the joint performance of the whole four against Brussels. It is not clear whether the desire to please voters and protect their farmers will overpower the desire to receive subsidies from EU funds, Temeretsky concludes.

The EC is concerned about the prospect of breaking the Black Sea grain deal and is putting pressure on Eastern European countries, says Artem Sokolov, a researcher at the Center for European Studies at MGIMO. According to him, the result of the confrontation between the EC and the Eastern European states depends on the position of France and Germany.

A compromise between Eastern European countries and the EC is likely, Arkady Zlochevsky, President of the Russian Grain Union, believes. In his opinion, the first solution may involve the extension of EU general rules – quotas, duties, sanitary standards – to all Ukrainian grain, excluding its privileged position and dumping. The second, more realistic and optimal option is the organization of compromise transit regimes so that grain can go to Europe without hindrance, but not stay there, but immediately go to Africa and the Middle East, and in the event of “settlement” in the EU, Ukrainian products would be subject to general EU rules, Zlochevsky suggested.