Named ways to save savings in rubles: “Optimal moment”
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In August, the Russians watched with dismay as a new powerful wave of weakening of the national currency, which depreciated their ruble savings. Despite favorable oil quotes, the dollar was traded on the stock exchange for more than 100 rubles. MK decided to find out what financial instruments this fall will help reduce the risks of ruble volatility and allow private investors to beat official inflation.
Recall that real income in rubles consists of net income minus the official inflation of Rosstat. According to the forecast of the Central Bank, in 2023 it will be 5.1-5.7%. “In order to “overtake” the annual inflation rate, you can invest in risk-free fixed income assets – bank ruble deposits and Federal loan bonds (OFZ),” Vladimir Chernov, an analyst with Freedom Finance Global, told MK. After the recent increase in the key refinancing rate of the Central Bank, the profitability of these risk-free assets immediately increased. Thus, the largest state-owned bank raised the maximum rate on deposits to 12% per annum, which is two times higher than the forecast values of the Central Bank for the annual growth rate of consumer prices in the Russian Federation. OFZ yields, according to the expert, will rise to 10-12% per annum, and corporate bond yields – up to 12-18% per annum. However, corporate bonds cannot be called a risk-free asset, since the probability of default of the enterprise is still higher compared to the probability of default of the whole country or some region of it.
The vast majority of other assets are not guaranteed to return above average annual inflation rates. However, with sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate on the Russian stock market, there are always companies that benefit from jumps. As Chernov explained, with the growth of the dollar, exporting companies always win, since their foreign exchange earnings in ruble terms increase. And with a sharp drop in the value of foreign currency, importing companies benefit, because. the cost of their purchases in ruble terms is reduced. They also include retailers who buy a significant part of their products abroad. “But after the strengthening of the ruble, the prices for it in stores do not decrease, although the purchase prices for them become lower. This will also lead to an increase in net income, so the shares of these companies rise in price at such moments, ”the analyst explained.
Timur Nigmatullin, senior investment consultant at FG Finam, believes that in the current environment, replacement bonds, exchange-traded funds for replacement bonds and cash yuan are well suited to reduce the volatility of the investment portfolio. Other assets (real estate mutual funds, Moscow apartments and warehouses near Moscow, ruble deposits), in his opinion, do not remove the currency risk or, like gold, for example, are an instrument with a higher imputed level of volatility.
“The purchase of gold or replacement bonds is essentially not much different from the purchase of foreign currency, because their value is directly tied to it,” Alexander Dzhioev, an analyst at Alfa Capital, told MK. “But bonds pay income. Taking into account the unscheduled increase in the key rate to 12%, ruble bonds also look interesting. The market offers double-digit yields, which allows us to expect real positive returns if bonds are held to maturity.” In addition, the analyst expects an increase in yields on money market instruments (and funds on them), since they are closely correlated with the key rate — this instrument allows investors to take a wait-and-see attitude, bringing income close to the key rate. Shares of oil exporters are also a hedge against ruble volatility, especially given the rise in world prices for Urals.
“The classic set of investments that protect against inflation includes real estate, stocks, OFZs, replacing bonds, gold and silver,” Andrey Vernikov, financial analyst, told MK. All these instruments protect investors on the horizon of 20 years or more. But on shorter horizons, they often do not protect. For example, gold prices used to go down 10 years in a row. Of course, few Russians are ready to invest for such a long period. However, an independent expert believes that it is now that you should buy gold and shares of gold mining companies: “It is highly likely that in mid-2024 the Fed will begin to reduce the rate, which will have a beneficial effect on the prices of the yellow metal. The price of $2200-2400 per ounce of gold will not surprise me.” Also, according to him, the moment has come for buying OFZs. For example, OFZ with maturity in 2-6 years can be bought with a yield of 10.4-11%. “Recently, the Central Bank raised the rate to 12%, while the yield of bonds almost did not grow. This shows that market participants do not believe that the Central Bank will radically raise the rate at the September meeting. Perhaps there will be an increase, but symbolic, for example, by 0.5%. In addition, they do not believe that the rate will be held at a high level for a long time. Therefore, now is the best time to buy bonds,” Vernikov explained.
In addition to attractive financial instruments, there are assets that are better to stay away from today. “In the current situation, it is better to refrain from active forex trading, because. this market is characterized by increased volatility,” Dzhioev emphasized. Nigmatullin is skeptical about investments in ruble assets.
The main advice to private investors is not to put all your eggs in one basket. “Successful investors try to diversify their portfolio, which necessarily contains various currencies, OFZ and ruble bonds, bonds denominated in foreign currency, stocks, ETFs, index futures and commodities,” said Alexander Tsyganov. Recently, according to him, many people are also buying physical gold in bars and coins. With such approaches, investors safely survive moments of extreme deviations of rates from their normal values and, as a result, remain in the black. You need to understand that investing is a long process, not a momentary gain.
Timur Nigmatullin advises private investors not to make decisions under the pressure of circumstances. Alexander Dzhioev recommends sticking to your long-term strategy and not trying to instantly change the risk profile of portfolios during periods of increased volatility in financial markets. “Part of the savings must be left in the cache, as in the most liquid asset. Do not make transactions with complex financial instruments if you are not a qualified investor,” concluded Vladimir Chernov.
Newspaper headline:
Investors ride on a roller coaster
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