Named US interests in a meeting with Indian Prime Minister Modi: “Bastion against China”

Once upon a time, during the tenure of Narendra Modi as chief minister of the Indian state of Gujarat, the US denied the politician a visa to enter the country, simultaneously banning Modi from visiting the United States for 10 years. The reason was the so-called Gujarat pogrom that occurred in 2002 (a series of inter-religious clashes between radical Hindus and Muslims). At that time, the chief minister of the state was accused of not providing protection to Indian Muslims.

The ban ended nine years ago. During this time, despite past claims, Washington has been trying to get in closer contact with the most populous country in the world. And now Narendra Modi is being accepted as America’s most honored guest.

The Prime Minister has previously visited the United States six times for both bilateral meetings and multilateral events. However, the official state visit is the first one. According to the Indian Foreign Ministry, the official part of the program starts on June 21st. The Prime Minister will lead the celebration of International Yoga Day at the UN Headquarters, meeting with “a number of prominent figures and leaders.” On Wednesday, the politician will go to Washington for talks with Joe Biden, at the same time contacts will be held at the level of delegations. Narendra Modi is also scheduled to speak at a joint meeting of both houses of the US Congress.

The trip is expected to further develop defense, trade and technology ties, as well as celebrate the “warm ties of family and friendship” that link the two countries.

As CNN notes, Modi’s visit could be a test for the Biden administration, which positions itself as the main defender of democracy. India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has most recently come under scrutiny from human rights groups and opposition lawmakers, who say the party has adopted increasingly strident Hindu nationalist policies and cracked down on dissent.

Last week, Human Rights Watch (HRW) even urged the White House to put human rights issues “at the center” of the US-India summit. “Modi and Biden must together recognize the human rights issues – both in India and the US – and agree to address them,” said John Sifton, director of the Asia advocacy group.

Because of all this, there is growing pressure on Biden to somehow resolve these issues during Modi’s visit. In fact, human rights groups are hoping that the head of the White House will put some sort of pressure on his most important regional partner. Western analysts believe that such a scenario is unlikely, given the growing influence of India in the Indo-Pacific region.

And another important point: in the United States itself, the Indian diaspora is considered one of the largest in the country (it has 5 million people). It is clear that this group is the most important and fastest growing electoral bloc. It is clear that it is more than dangerous to neglect such potential support in the run-up to the 2024 presidential election.

If we analyze what the foreign media and the negotiating parties themselves expect from US-Indian contacts, we can single out several points in this regard. Washington and New Delhi are forecast to announce a number of trade and defense deals. According to Reuters, the United States is seeking a major contract from India for the supply of American MQ-9B maritime reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicles. The Washington administration hopes that Modi’s visit to the United States will make it possible to make progress in discussing the deal or signing it.

Common concerns about China are also a priority in the talks. It is no secret that relations between New Delhi and Beijing are far from simple. Here we can recall the periodically flaring confrontation along the Himalayan border, as well as India’s membership in the strategic alliance QUAD, which also includes Australia, the United States and Japan. The union itself ceased to exist for some time (this happened in 2008 due to Australia withdrawing from the dialogue), but was restored under the administration of Donald Trump in 2017. If you remove all the husks from the declared goal of unification, then in practice the quadripartite alliance is working to contain China in the Indo-Pacific region.

Among other things, the collective West (led by the United States) does not like the ongoing strengthening of India’s economic ties with Russia: increased purchases of Russian oil, coal and fertilizers. The representative of New Delhi has also repeatedly abstained from voting at the UN when anti-Russian resolutions were brought into the arena.

In general, the conversation is important and necessary for the United States, but it is also very dangerous. Here, as they say, Washington must manage to get between Scylla and Charybdis, so as not to break relations with New Delhi, and even defend its own aspirations.

On Monday, Indian Foreign Minister Vinay Kvatra called New Delhi’s defense relationship with Washington “reliable and dynamic.” Speaking to reporters, he said the defense roadmap that India and the US are discussing “focuses on all aspects of defense, production and development of major components” and could be “a key aspect” of Modi’s trip.

Meanwhile, the Biden government is seeking to encourage manufacturers to reduce their dependence on China and turn to India, which has 1.4 billion people, many of whom are young, promising and English-speakers. Excellent data for a strategic partnership.

“India has had an almost continuous improvement in relations with the United States since about 2001, with minor short-term annoyances, such as the story of the expulsion of an Indian diplomat. But these are quite short separate episodes, – explains Alexei Kupriyanov, head of the Center for the Indian Ocean Region at IMEMO RAS. “For the past 22 years, India has been cooperating quite closely with the United States, and more and more every year.”

Such a visit, although it is called the first official state visit, is a common thing and happens to every leader of any state once in a while, the expert recalls.

“In principle, the United States views India as a promising partner (primarily an economic one), which should ideally replace China in product chains,” notes Alexei Kupriyanov. – Now the United States is carrying out the so-called “decoupling campaign” (separation of the Chinese and American economies) and is interested in American companies returning to the States (to manufacture products there and create jobs there too). It is clear that American companies will not return there, because production in the United States is an expensive and unprofitable thing. Therefore, they will look for a new platform in order to be placed there and create new products. India looks quite promising in this respect.

Plus, the US is interested in India as a partner that will play the role of a kind of bulwark against China. In the event that the PRC always has a hostile state on its southern border, then China will not have the time to carry out its “expansion” either on a global scale or in the Pacific Ocean, which the United States is so afraid of.”

The political scientist also stressed that this is a meeting of the leaders of two major powers, which indicates that each side will defend its own interests. The expert does not foresee any surprises in the form of a possible change in Indian policy towards, for example, Russia: “If the Indians consider that some agreements are beneficial to them, they will support the Americans. If they think that it is not profitable for them, they will not support it. In any case, India follows the concept of “strategic autonomy”, based on the fact that the existence of a multipolar world is beneficial for the country, maintaining partnership with Russia both in the economic, military and political spheres.