Named the expectations of Ukraine from the upcoming NATO summit

Although Ukraine filed a fast-track application for NATO membership last fall, North Atlantic Treaty Organization Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in June that there would be no discussions at the summit about issuing a formal invitation to Ukraine to join the alliance.

He said NATO leaders are discussing how to “bring” Ukraine closer to the alliance, and most importantly, to ensure that Ukraine can defend itself against Russia as a “sovereign, independent, democratic nation.”

The biggest challenge facing the leaders of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization at their July summit in the Lithuanian capital is how to respond to Ukraine’s interest in joining the alliance. Western experts point out that member states want to strengthen NATO’s partnership with Ukraine, but still disagree on critical details. That is, should membership be full or partial? Immediate, gradual or again delayed? Unconditional or related to the outcome of the conflict? And the recent attempted insurgency in Russia will make all these differences more difficult to resolve, observers predict.

On the one hand, NATO has left behind the “Budapest-Bucharest-Minsk consensus” and recognizes that solemn declarations – in the absence of real cooperation – do little to promote security. Brussels’ new approach assumes that security ties with Ukraine have a solid institutional structure that can guarantee their permanence.

However, the North Atlantic Alliance is not ready to turn Ukraine’s membership from a goal into a reality. And, according to Western political analysts, the outcome of the upcoming summit will be whether NATO can make its steadily growing support for Ukraine seem significant enough that both the alliance and Kiev see this event as a real milestone on the path to a lasting partnership.

The extraordinary flow of weapons, training and intelligence to Ukraine, as well as the regular consultations of the so-called “Ukrainian Defense Contact Group”, have supported Kiev’s military efforts since February 2022 and provide a solid foundation for continued partnership. Virtually out of nothing, Kyiv and its backers have created the kind of security cooperation usually reserved for its closest allies, Western experts say. And at the same time, in their opinion, since NATO remains unwilling to set a timetable for Ukraine’s membership in the alliance, many observers – and Ukrainians in particular – will wonder if Ukraine is really any closer to joining the alliance than it was. after Bucharest fifteen years ago.

Since the alliance is not of one mind on Ukraine’s membership, its decisions in Vilnius are unlikely to avoid repeating “past mistakes,” Western political analysts say, arguing that to be more successful, the collective West must emphasize those elements of the NATO-Ukraine partnership that have already formed a new one. strong consensus.

Ahead of the 33rd Alliance Leaders’ Meeting in Vilnius two weeks from now, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said Kiev recognizes that NATO membership is not possible while the conflict continues, but insists Ukraine will need to be given firm promises for the future.

As The Guardian reports, the Ukrainian government is actively lobbying behind the scenes for a tailor-made path to NATO membership, abandoning the usual Membership Action Plan (MAP), which puts accession at risk of a last-minute veto by any member state.

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky recently echoed the words of his defense minister, arguing that Kiev understands that they cannot become a NATO member during an armed conflict, but want to be sure that after it ends, “we will become one”

“We would like to receive a third signal at the NATO summit that Ukraine will receive security guarantees – not instead of NATO, but for the time being until we are in the alliance,” Zelensky said.

In 2008, ahead of the NATO summit in Bucharest, then-German chancellor Angela Merkel vetoed the inclusion of Ukraine in the membership action plan in 2008, despite US government lobbying for an open-door policy for the former Soviet republics.

At the time, Merkel said that the ongoing debate within Ukraine over NATO membership and Russia’s “legitimate security concerns” meant that now was not the right time for the country to begin the process of joining the North Atlantic Alliance.

And now the head of the military department of Ukraine, Reznikov, told The Guardian that “a similar mistake should not be repeated” when 31 NATO members meet on July 11 in the capital of Lithuania, and that firm guarantees should be provided to Kiev.

“In Vilnius, the heads of state and government of NATO member countries will have the opportunity to correct the mistake of Bucharest in 2008 and demonstrate responsible leadership in line with our expectations,” the head of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry broadcast. “This will show Russia that its influence must be ended on its borders.”

“We are realists and do not demand the impossible,” Reznikov assures, emphasizing that following the results of the Vilnius NATO summit, Ukraine will receive a guarantee of an invitation to join NATO after Kiev’s victory over Russia (however, with realism and understanding of the impossible, the Ukrainian minister clearly flattered Kiev authorities).

“We are ready to immediately sign the accession protocol in order to start the procedure for ratification and final accession,” the Ukrainian minister announced.

But, The Guardian emphasizes, fears have been expressed in the United States and Germany that granting Ukraine early membership in NATO could provoke Russia and change the structure of decision-making in the North Atlantic Alliance.

At the alliance’s recent meeting, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna was not outspoken about abandoning the normal MAP process, saying it “maybe” not necessary, although her British counterpart James Cleverly has lent strong support from London.

Finland, which did not have to go through the MAP process, became a new member of NATO when it joined the Western military bloc on April 4, while Bosnia and Herzegovina and Sweden are now candidate countries to join the alliance.

Turkey and Hungary have so far blocked Sweden’s membership, which is an example of the lack of confidence that any potential member may face in the accession process.

Reznikov touted the value of Ukraine joining the North Atlantic bloc with might and main, noting that it was in NATO’s interests to strengthen its eastern flank against the “Russian threat.” The Ukrainian minister tried to reassure his patrons that he was ready to get into the NATO company: “The three key prerequisites for becoming a member of the NATO alliance are interoperability with NATO forces, a transparent procurement system and civilian control over the military. So far, Ukraine has successfully met all three of these preconditions.”

The Ukrainian minister called his country a “protective shield for the Eastern European members of NATO” and scared his Western neighbors that “if this shield breaks”, then the Baltic countries, Poland, Hungary or Slovakia will have to face the Russian threat.

“Therefore, I have no doubt that it is in the best interest of NATO that Ukraine’s combat experience (using standard NATO weapon systems against the Russian army) be fully available to NATO countries. To achieve this, Ukraine must become a full-fledged member of NATO,” the Ukrainian Minister of War stated thoughtfully.

Reznikov said previous statements by Merkel and others that Kiev should not be granted membership due to internal debate in Ukraine over its future relationship with the Western alliance are not credible. At the same time, the minister went over the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, according to which Ukraine abandoned its nuclear arsenal: “It is important to note that today the support of the Ukrainian people for our membership in NATO is at a historically unprecedented level – a record high of 83%. Not least because since 2014 we have seen firsthand the devastating consequences of the failure of the Budapest Memorandum. “That is why NATO membership is perceived by the vast majority of Ukrainians as the only possible effective form of security guarantees for a peaceful future. And that is why Ukraine’s membership in the NATO alliance, as well as our territorial integrity, is non-negotiable.”