Named the date when the collapse of the ruble will affect food prices

For some, the fall of the ruble means an increased rate in exchange offices, while for others it means a sharp rise in food prices. And, as a result, an empty stew. Now there is not much excitement in stores. Azerbaijani and Egyptian young potatoes, as they were at 40 and 60 rubles, respectively, remain the same. But this silence is deceptive. Many are “at a low start,” waiting to stock up. And market participants are already signaling about the upcoming rise in prices. Imported alcohol, according to news agencies, will rise in price by 10% in July. What else and for how long?

Okay, without alcohol, especially imported, we can somehow manage. But what will happen to food prices? The question is not idle. A weak ruble means high prices; this has long been an axiom for Russians. What will rise in price first?

It would seem that the answer is obvious: due to the depreciation of the ruble, imported goods will increase in price. The list is known to everyone: coffee, tea, chocolate, cheeses, many types of fruits and berries… But our farmers are ahead of the rest in terms of import substitution, they began to rely on their own production since 2014. However, the blissful picture here is only at first glance. In fact, literally in every domestic product there will definitely be an imported ingredient that will spoil the price holiday.

Therefore, the forecasts are not very encouraging. Everything will rise in price – starting from daily bread – flour mills and bakeries, as a rule, are equipped with western lines. As for flour, cereals and bakery products, Vasily Melnichenko, a well-known Ural farmer, said in a conversation with MK that he never advises buying for future use. “Worms will start in flour, cereals will deteriorate with high humidity, salt will turn to stone” …

“We have long been accustomed to higher prices,” he said. – And, although according to official reports, our income increased by 11%, for some reason they began to consume milk by 17% less. If this is the case with milk, then for other products too …

By the way, about milk. The situation with him is difficult. Huge stocks of powdered milk, accumulated in warehouses, do not allow producers to raise prices for a natural product, they sell it at 20% below cost. But this cannot go on for so long. They will start cutting cows, and next year we may be left without domestic dairy products altogether.

Although now you can not worry about the price of milk. Moreover, the Federal Antimonopoly Service began a mass check of processors (dairies) and retail chains for pricing.

Even 12-15 years ago, when the country was implementing the national project for the development of the countryside, we purchased foreign equipment with entire automatic lines. And our agro-industrial complex has strongly rushed forward. The production of milk, poultry, pork, confectionery factories are organized and built according to Western models. But now this addiction is doing us a disservice. Imported equipment itself and spare parts for it have risen in price by 1.5 times (the current fall of the ruble has increased by another 10%), and logistics has become twice as expensive.

– The weakening of the ruble will cause an increase in producers’ costs due to the foreign exchange component in different categories of goods, – Dmitry Leonkov, Deputy Chairman of the Board of the Rusprodsoyuz Association, believes. – The final dynamics of prices on the shelf will depend on the duration of the current trend and on the willingness of retail chains, following the producers, to contain or reduce their margins using their own resources in a highly competitive environment among manufacturers. However, the low purchasing power of the population remains a deterrent today.

The same opinion is shared by the farmer, and at the same time by the doctor of economic sciences Dmitry Valigursky. Consumer demand in the country fell, food prices froze. If sausage is not bought at current prices, then it will not be bought even at higher prices. “However, this “balance” is not for long. For the holidays, the Russians saved up some money so that they would not deny themselves anything for at least a month or two. Trade can take advantage of this moment and, if not abruptly, but gradually begin to raise prices.”

When exactly is the question.

– Economists say that such fluctuations of the ruble begin to affect food inflation in two months, – Alexander Korbut, an agrarian expert, told us.

– But in March last year, when the ruble collapsed, the price tags were rewritten literally overnight! Why is trading up now?

– A year ago, everything was on emotions. Now the warehouses have stocks made in advance, purchased in rubles at the previous rate. Moreover, the state today strictly monitors the price situation. The inflationary effect in the weakening of the ruble is always present and it will definitely affect. We will see to what extent the costs of products containing imported components will increase. After that, it will become clear how much to adjust the price tags.