Named the consequences of the American midterm elections for the financing of Ukraine

Differences within the Republican Party over how long U.S. aid to Ukraine will continue come to the fore in the weeks leading up to a midterm election that, in theory, could give the party full control of Congress.

When Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy — the likely speaker of the Republican House of Representatives next year — proposed this week to withdraw American funding for Ukraine’s fight against Russia, it was not the first signal from the Biden administration that Republican lawmakers were cautious about continued financial support for Kyiv. writes Politico.

But for many in Congress, including some Republicans, Kevin McCarthy’s comments have only heightened awareness of the urgency of passing a major aid package to Ukraine in December before the California Republican is likely to lead the House.

As Politico notes, the GOP leader’s comments also drew strong, if subtle, objections from party circles that are reluctant to forego financial commitments to Ukraine’s war effort. One of the objections came from former U.S. Vice President Mike Pence, who in a speech on Wednesday chided Republicans for “making us disassociate ourselves from the world” and then tried to convince his party through Fox News to continue helping Ukraine.

The grim picture of a divided Republican Party is a clear challenge to President Joe Biden, writes Politico and wonders if the administration should try to increase aid to Ukraine in a mandatory year-end spending bill to avoid public swindling of Republicans over future funding?

Privately, Biden aides believe McCarthy will leave the US aid funnel open to Ukraine, at least for the time being, though he may push for lower numbers. They also predict internal pressure from Republicans — some from members of the House of Representatives (such as Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania) and parts of senators (including minority leader Mitch McConnell) — to keep money flowing to Kyiv. Their calculation is that the political backlash will hurt the Republican Party if the flow of money to Kyiv stops, Ukraine suffers and Russia wins.

There are some indications that on this front, the White House may have allies in the GOP-led Congress, or at least a sympathetic audience. Congressman Fitzpatrick said that while he agreed with Kevin McCarthy’s Punchbowl News comments that US aid to Ukraine should not be carte blanche, cutting off arms and other critical aid to Kyiv would be a mistake.

For now, it’s clear that Republicans are increasingly divided between the camp of Kevin McCarthy — who is hesitant about multibillion-dollar bailouts to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as the US economy leans into recession — and that of Mitch McConnell, who still supports more aid to Kyiv. The likely next chairman of the House Foreign Relations Committee, Rep. Michael McCall (R-Tex.), announced his preference recently, calling for continued arms and military aid.

“Ukrainians — when we give them what they need, they succeed,” Michael McCall told Bloomberg TV.

Conservatives such as Rep. Chip Roy (D-TX), meanwhile, dominate the austerity camp. Roy, who often takes a hard line on federal spending, said McCarthy’s stance on aid to Ukraine is more “responsible.”

The White House has yet to publicly say that the latest signals from the Republican Party are changing any of its plans for a post-election legislative sprint that could be the Democratic Biden administration’s last chance to increase aid to Ukraine in a mandatory public spending bill.

But administration officials have also prepared for the moment Congress turns on the faucet to help Kyiv, knowing that no amount of funding for Ukraine’s war effort can go on indefinitely, Politico notes.

A National Security Council spokesman told Politico that the administration will continue to ask Congress to help Kyiv resist Moscow “for as long as it takes,” echoing a similar promise made by President Joe Biden earlier this year at NATO’s annual summit.

The White House has not issued recent warnings to the Ukrainian government about the possibility of ending aid if the Republicans take control of even one house of Congress in January. But White House aides said Kyiv is well aware of the possibility. Zelenskiy and his top advisers have tried to lobby both Democrats and Republicans to keep the funding going, even as the conflict lingers and fears of a global recession rise.

It is important to note, writes Politico, that Republicans and Democrats in general want to see additional control and accountability when it comes to the weapons and equipment that Americans send to Ukraine. They also want European countries to provide more support so that the US does not bear the full burden of aid. But many GOP lawmakers are concerned that their Donald Trump-inspired base is pushing elected Republicans to leave Ukraine to its own devices altogether.

Dozens of Republicans in the House of Representatives, 57 of whom voted against a $40 billion aid package in May, agree with Kevin McCarthy. Recent polls have also shown that the Republican Party supports funding Ukraine. A September Pew Research poll found that a third of Republicans believe the US is too supportive of Ukraine, up from 9 percent at the start of the conflict. Others, however, insist that the United States can advance its national security interests without turning a blind eye to challenges within the US.

“In the next Congress with a potentially divided government, it will be unclear how difficult it will be to maintain our support for Ukraine,” Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick added. “Now is not the time to slow down, let alone stop our aid.”

Pressure on the White House is also mounting from Democrats, who see the December funding spurt as perhaps the last opportunity to keep the Ukrainian military alive until the end of the conflict.

However, some Democrats say the Zelenskiy government may not know in December what types of weapons and other equipment it needs to fight the winter. Last month, a temporary government funding bill included $12 billion for Ukraine, and lawmakers expected they wouldn’t need to consider additional aid until early 2023.

“The administration may have no choice but to ask for more money in December,” said Senator Chris Murphy (D-Connecticut), a staunch White House ally. “But this may not be the right time for Ukraine. So it’s a whole new world where Republicans are openly saying they’re preparing to hand over Ukraine to Putin.”

McCarthy’s stance on the issue reflects growing concerns about the stability of the Western alliance when it comes to supporting Ukraine and imposing sanctions on Russia. Far-right leaders across Europe are signaling their concern about the continuation of hostilities, citing economic problems in their countries, fueled in part by rising energy prices, which have fallen victim to U.S.-imposed sanctions against Moscow.

Meanwhile, US allies in Eastern Europe remain optimistic – at least publicly – about the momentum on Capitol Hill. Speaking in Washington the other day, Estonian Ambassador to the US Kristjan Prikk said he “has been reassured by various members of Congress that there is strong core support to continue helping Ukraine for as long as needed on both sides.”