Named scenarios for Ukraine following the NATO summit

On July 11-12, the Lithuanian capital will host a summit of the North Atlantic Alliance, whose members will talk a lot about solidarity with Ukraine. But Kyiv’s hopes for an early admission to NATO still look unrealizable. What the bloc can offer its Ukrainian clients and what Zelensky and the company are counting on – Western media are actively discussing this.

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“Allies have never been more united,” US President Joe Biden, who said this during a recent meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, radiated optimism. And it must be admitted that the owner of the White House has some grounds for this.

As The Conversation notes, the conflict in Ukraine has certainly given the Alliance, whose credibility was severely damaged by the catastrophic flight from Afghanistan in 2021, a new sense of purpose and momentum and allowed it to return “to what it is good at: the collective defense of Europe.” .

Thus, at the Madrid summit in 2022, a new strategic concept was agreed, in which priority was given to deterrence and defense, as well as building up forces on the eastern flank of the alliance. In April of this year, the accession of Finland strengthened NATO’s presence in the Arctic and Baltic regions. At the Vilnius Summit starting on July 11, Alliance leaders are expected to approve a series of regional plans, the most detailed NATO defense documents since the end of the Cold War.

In parallel, the ministries of defense are working on new capacity targets to be in line with the “New Model of the Armed Forces” agreed in Madrid. At the same time, progress in increasing the combat readiness of European armies has been mixed – and most NATO allies still fall short of the defense spending target of 2% of GDP.

But because of the Ukraine crisis, Western allies, with the exception of the US and Turkey, have increased defense spending relative to their countries’ GDP since NATO agreed on defense investment commitments in 2014.

And yet, NATO is aware that not everything is going smoothly in the alliance. Obviously, the most important issue is Ukraine. NATO’s role was not to arm Kyiv in its fight against Russia, writes The Conversation. This is a matter for individual allies, coordinated by the International Donor Coordination Center and the Ukrainian Defense Contact Group. None of them is a NATO body (this is by design, otherwise their activities would be subject to NATO’s cumbersome consensus rule).

Instead, NATO support consisted of training and the provision of “non-lethal aid” such as rations, fuel and medical supplies. In April, NATO foreign ministers approved a “strategic multi-year assistance program” to extend this commitment. The Vilnius summit will consolidate this agreement.

However, Ukraine’s biggest dream is NATO membership, which would involve Kyiv joining the famous Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty on Collective Defense and, in effect, extending US nuclear guarantees to Ukrainian territory. Back in September 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky requested an “accelerated” entry into the alliance, recalls The Conversation – and immediately notes that no one in NATO is in favor of granting membership while Ukraine remains in a state of armed conflict. In addition, NATO allies are divided.

On the one hand, there are countries such as Poland, the Baltics, the UK and presumably France that want Vilnius to set a “clear path” to membership once the conflict is over.

The limitrophes were the most active, insisting on Ukraine’s inclusion in the bloc as soon as possible. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda, in an interview with Reuters, urged NATO leaders to be bolder in dealing with Ukraine’s aspirations for membership at the Vilna summit, saying it would increase Kiev’s effectiveness on the battlefield while Moscow would perceive any caution as weakness.

“We have some countries that are wary of a tougher formulation of Ukraine’s point of view. But I already see some shift in the minds of their leaders,” Nauseda said, acknowledging that even the Vilnius leadership understands that in the current conditions, Ukraine is not in able to join NATO immediately: “We understand that. Ukrainians understand this. But we need to develop procedures on how to proceed.”

Nausėda said he was waiting for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to appear in the Lithuanian capital, despite his warnings that he saw “no point” in going unless a “signal” was given to Kiev.

There is another side in NATO circles, the US, backed by Germany, who seem to prefer diplomatic ambiguity to keep all options open (including a delay), on the assumption that Kiev’s military confrontation with Russia will drag on indefinitely.

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In Kyiv, they assure that “more than 20 NATO member states support Ukraine’s entry into the alliance.” Over the past few months, Ukraine has been preparing for the NATO summit in Vilna. The main effort was focused on getting as much support as possible.

As far back as last year, the Zelenskiy administration drafted the so-called Kyiv security treaty, in which Ukrainian leaders tried to create room for maneuver by describing security guarantees as broadly as possible. At the same time, Kiev realized that hopes for bilateral security guarantees from Western patrons did not come true – as it turned out, no one is in a hurry to provide them.

Therefore, now in Ukraine they are “drown” for full membership in NATO. But even among the aforementioned two dozen NATO countries, which, according to Kyiv, are ready to see Ukraine as a member of the organization, there is no unanimity. But in the alliance, taking into account the recently joined Finland, there are 31 members.

Based on this, NATO patrons see several scenarios for Ukraine.

The first scenario is in the policy of continuing to arm Ukraine. Kiev recognizes that without the constant support of the West, they will not be able to independently confront Russia, which has many times more resources. However, arguing in the spirit of “whenever he needs honey, he needs a spoon,” Kyiv complains that the current level of Western support is insufficient, even minimally, to fully fulfill the tasks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

According to the second scenario, Ukraine joins NATO immediately after the end of the conflict. And most of the Western powers that advocate Kyiv’s membership in the alliance seem to be considering just such an option. But what can be considered this very completion, few people understand. What makes NATO’s prospects for “Square” very cloudy

And the third scenario is joining NATO during the conflict. But even in Kiev, they realize that few people in the alliance will like this option – because it would raise the question of the bloc entering into an armed confrontation with Russia, which the West is not ready for, given the possible catastrophic consequences.

Given all this, writing the declaration of the Vilna summit has clearly become a difficult task.