Named fears of the tragic consequences of the termination of the Chinese policy of “zero COVID”

Economists hail the end of China’s zero-COVID policy, but fear a huge loss of life. Low vaccination rates for the elderly and lack of natural immunity mean China could have a bumpy road ahead of its pandemic lockdown.

Economics experts applaud Beijing’s sudden waiver of “COVID zero” controls, even as the country braces for human impact allowing the disease to spread to vulnerable populations.

According to The Guardian, the Chinese leadership’s sharp turn in how it is handling the pandemic appears to have been sparked by protests against tough control measures that began last month, a nationwide display of discontent on a scale that China has not seen in decades.

But the unrest comes after growing concerns that lockdowns and regular hard restrictions are hurting the country’s economy.

China has been the engine of regional growth since the last century. However, this year is projected to lag behind neighbors for the first time since 1990, which could have catastrophic consequences for the population.

Nearly one in five young people in Chinese cities is unemployed. Small and medium-sized businesses have been particularly hard hit by the uncertainty and consequences of unpredictable and often lengthy shutdowns of entire cities.

The founder of Foxconn, a key supplier to Apple, has warned Beijing that controls threaten China’s place in the global supply chain, the Wall Street Journal reports. The private letter was sent last month when disgruntled workers protested at the company’s factories and served as a weapon for health officials and advisers who wanted to reopen the country to the world.

Other countries, from Australia to South Korea, that had a zero-COVID policy at the start of the pandemic, have cautiously reopened as vaccines and antivirals become more widely available.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva hailed Chinese authorities’ “strong” steps to “review COVID policy” and said they could stimulate the regional international economy. “This could be very good for the Chinese people and the economy, and also good for Asia and the global economy,” she said after the summit in east China’s Huangshan city. Premier Li Keqiang, who led the discussions, has clearly abandoned masks and social distancing.

Awareness videos have surfaced on social media showing smiling men and women taking off their masks, which have been mandatory for years.

It was a stark departure from years of messages that the only way to stay safe is to avoid COVID by implementing extreme isolation measures when necessary. For years, an increasingly stringent control system has kept ever more contagious strains of disease at bay. Medical experts say it was a missed window of opportunity to protect the public and prepare the healthcare system for a wave of sick patients.

Georgieva also called for more vaccinations and a rapid expansion of treatment options to prepare for the wave of infections that will inevitably follow the discovery. “It [конец “нулевого COVID”] could create the best momentum for a resurgence of growth in China, especially when combined with greater vaccination coverage, provision of antiviral treatment, and health capacity building.”

The big issue facing management now is whether it can limit the number of cases and deaths. China is an aging country where vaccination and revaccination rates fall well short of what is needed to curb severe disease. Only 40% of people over 80, who are particularly vulnerable, have received booster shots. And almost all of them will receive a domestically developed vaccine that is less effective and less durable than Western counterparts.

China has been looking for technology to produce mRNA vaccines but has refused to buy or import them. In addition to the risks associated with the rapidly spreading wave of infections, there is little to no natural immunity because most people have never been exposed to C.

Between 1.3 and 2.1 million lives could be at risk, according to a study by analytics firm Airfinity. The models are based on the impact of an outbreak earlier this year in Hong Kong, which also has an older population and low vaccination coverage.

The spread of the disease at the start of the northern hemisphere winter, when other respiratory illnesses are circulating and people are crowding indoors, increases the risks.

These factors could spell a bumpy road for China. If health services become overwhelmed, they may have to resort to the rollercoaster of temporary lockdowns that most Western countries have gone through until they boost vaccination rates.