Nabiullina told when she would decorate her outfits with a brooch again

The importance of the decision of the Central Bank on September 16 lies not in the very fact of reducing the key rate from 8% to 7.5% – the vast majority of experts surveyed by MK were confident in this step of the regulator. More importantly, the first meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia and the first press conference of the regulator after the summer holidays, which traditionally set the tone for the entire subsequent business season, took place. Chairman of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation Elvira Nabiullina answered questions in detail, and journalists were interested in everything – from the situation in the Russian economy to when the head of the Bank of Russia will again decorate his outfits with a brooch.

The head of the Central Bank began her speech with a traditional analysis of inflation. In her opinion, in annual terms, price growth is slowing down, but further “the effects of disinflationary factors will weaken.” According to the results of this year, the regulator expects inflation in the region of 11-13%: the final figure will be clear closer to December, but then life will get better. “According to the forecast of the Bank of Russia, taking into account the ongoing monetary policy, annual inflation will decrease to 5–7% in 2023 and return to 4% in 2024,” Nabiullina said.

Much attention was paid to the general state of business activity in Russia. According to the head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the adaptation of importing companies to the changed business conditions is quite active. “Importers of household appliances and electronics were able to restore supplies by reorienting to other manufacturers and parallel imports,” she said. The Bank of Russia, of course, is aware of the problems of international trade. In particular, the sale of goods to the West has been greatly reduced and has become impossible somewhere, and “the sale of goods to the East requires a significant increase in infrastructure – this will take time.”

Nevertheless, this does not prevent the financial authorities from looking to the future with cautious optimism. In particular, the Central Bank sees signs that the situation in the Russian economy in the third quarter is developing better than expected, and even the forecast for its growth in October may be revised. “With a high probability, the GDP forecast for this year will be improved,” Nabiullina said, noting that the Central Bank will take into account all trends in the updated forecast. The head of the regulator believes that if the situation in the economy develops better than expected, then there will be more confidence in the prospects for increasing incomes and employment of the population, which can also “give impetus to consumer activity.”

Naturally, the head of the Central Bank paid attention to the foreign exchange market. But the situation here remains complicated. “Dollars, euros have become toxic for many holders, because there are risks of their freezing, and those countries that issue them, one can say that they do not want us to actively use them,” Nabiullina noted. In this regard, banks seek to reduce their risks and introduce commissions with the blessing of the regulator. “But it will always be possible to exchange the currency for rubles,” the head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation confirmed once again at the conference.

At the same time, the Central Bank supports the maintenance of a budget rule, under which purchases of foreign currency will be resumed. Nabiullina announced that the Bank of Russia would announce new parameters for foreign exchange operations after making a decision on the budget rule. Recall that earlier a number of experts noted that after its introduction, the ruble will first fall below 60 rubles per dollar, but will not be able to stay there and will continue to retreat to 70 rubles per dollar.

The regulator also expressed its position on the latest events around the cards of the domestic payment system Mir. The day before, the US Treasury allowed the imposition of sanctions for supporting the use of these cards outside of our country. After that, according to media reports, problems began to be observed in Turkey, where compatriots on vacation could not pay for services in hotels and even withdraw cash from ATMs. Commenting on this situation, Elvira Nabiullina admitted that possible sanctions imposed against the Russian payment system may complicate negotiations on expanding the geography of accepting cards, but do not stop them. And the work to increase their reception network in other countries will continue, despite the difficulties. “When banks in these countries, of course, try to minimize the sanctions risks for themselves, the risks of secondary sanctions, then such refusals happen,” the head of the Central Bank admitted. — Especially for cards issued by sanctioned banks. But we continue to work, this is a daily, constant work.

In order to protect the funds of citizens, the regulator continues to be active in the field of combating fraud. In particular, the war against financial pyramids is going on in various ways: they are being detected, and cooperation with law enforcement agencies has been established on this issue. The regulator is also fighting against illegal financiers – “black usurers” who attract funds from citizens. “Now we support the draft law of the Council of Federations, which assumes that only legal entities with a certain status can attract funds from individuals, so that illegal attraction of funds from citizens can be stopped “at the start”, and not when it was possible to establish whether fraudulent the scheme was used by someone or not fraudulent, ”said the head of the Central Bank.

Journalists also asked when Elvira Nabiullina would start wearing brooches again at her press conferences, “fortune-telling” on which was one of the main funs of market participants in the pandemic years. Some observers were convinced that through this stylish accessory, the regulator sends a signal to the market about the true state of affairs in the financial sector of the economy. However, since the end of February, the field of well-known geopolitical events, the head of the Central Bank has refused to use such hints and today confirmed that she is not going to resume such “games”. “As for the brooch, I see no reason to resort to it again,” said Elvira Nabiullina.