More important is how much, not when – Newspaper Kommersant No. 165 (7366) of 09/08/2022

On Wednesday, polls were presented at the round table at the Rossiya Segodnya MIA, according to which the majority of residents of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions of Ukraine are ready to participate in the vote on joining Russia and vote in favor. Later, Secretary of the United Russia General Council Andrei Turchak said that such referendums should be held on National Unity Day, November 4. However, the participants of the round table do not consider this the only option: in their opinion, voting can be held later, on the day of the centenary of the formation of the USSR, on December 30, and earlier, at the end of October, when elections were traditionally held in Ukraine.

On September 7, two Russian sociological services immediately presented their research related to the possible voting of residents of the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions of Ukraine on the issue of joining the Russian Federation. Thus, according to a telephone poll by the Crimean Republican Institute for Political and Sociological Research (RIPSI), conducted on September 1-2 (about 1 thousand people in each of the territories controlled by Russia), 83% of respondents in the Zaporozhye region are ready to take part in the corresponding voting, of which 86% support joining the Russian Federation. In the Kherson region, these figures are 71% and 76%, respectively. According to RIPSI representative Sergei Yukhin, in both cases the number of those who would like to remain part of Ukraine does not exceed the statistical error (2.1%). In addition, according to RIPSI, 88% of Zaporizhzhya and 84% of Kherson residents positively perceive the possibility of obtaining a Russian passport. Mr. Yukhin also said that RIPSI had conducted similar surveys before, and noted the positive dynamics in the mood of the respondents.

The Institute for Social Marketing (INSOMAR) conducted its telephone surveys in the same territories on September 6, and also among 1,000 people in each of the regions (statistical error no more than 3.1%). According to him, if the vote was held next Sunday, then 74% of the inhabitants of the Zaporozhye region and 61% of the Kherson region would take part in it. Respondents were also asked the question: “Personally, would you like the territory of your region to remain part of Ukraine, become part of Russia, or become an independent state after the completion of the military operation?” In the Zaporizhzhia region, 71% of respondents were in favor of joining the Russian Federation, 6% would like to remain part of Ukraine, and another 6% were in favor of independence. In the Kherson region, 63% of respondents dream of joining the Russian Federation, 11% are in favor of Ukraine and 7% are for independence.

Soon Andrei Turchak, Secretary of the United Russia General Council, reacted to the results of the polls. “Referendums will certainly take place, and this year already. There can be no doubts here. It is right to hold them on November 4, on the Day of National Unity, ”he wrote in his Telegram channel.

Commenting on the results of the polls at the round table, political scientist Alexander Asafov suggested that the growth of pro-Russian sentiment in the mentioned territories is influenced by their shelling from Ukraine, while “Russia is working to restore peaceful life and launch the school year, restore infrastructure.” Sergei Yukhin added that pro-Ukrainian residents usually leave these regions and do not return, “so it is unlikely that the percentage of those who are in favor of joining Ukraine will grow.”

The experts also discussed possible dates for voting on the entry of these territories into Russia. State Duma deputy, political scientist Oleg Matveychev said that it would be worth timed to coincide with some symbolic date, and offered two options: National Unity Day, November 4, and the day of the centenary of the formation of the USSR, December 30. “This will show that the results of the collapse of the USSR will be partially corrected,” the parliamentarian believes. Aleksey Chesnakov, head of the scientific council of the Center for Current Politics, did not agree with this approach. In his opinion, such a vote should not be timed to a specific date, since its legitimacy is more important: “The main thing is to make sure that everyone is comfortable, comfortable and that these results do not raise doubts.” According to him, time plays on Russia, if only because the more it passes, the more citizens will return to these territories, and this will increase the legitimacy of potential plebiscites. Mr. Chesnakov suggested focusing on the end of October – November. “In Ukraine, elections were often held at the end of October. This is a factor of electoral habit, memory,” he explained. And the list of territories where a referendum on joining the Russian Federation is possible can be replenished by this time, the political scientist suggested.

The experts also discussed whether to hold voting in different territories at the same time or in turn. INSOMAR Director of Political Analysis Viktor Poturemsky, based on data from one of the focus groups in Lugansk, called the first option more preferable: “The general opinion was that Luhansk was ready to wait for Donetsk and that they should do this (join Russia.— “b”) together”.

Andrey Vinokurov