Military aid package for Israel will be approved separately from aid to Ukraine

House Republicans plan to vote on a military aid package for Israel separate from the one for Ukraine this coming Thursday, November 2. This was reported by Politico, citing sources within the party. It is expected that Tel Aviv will be allocated $14.5 billion. Earlier, on October 21, the Joe Biden administration proposed combining assistance for Ukraine in the amount of more than $61.4 billion with assistance to Israel and expenses for strengthening the border with Mexico into a total package of $105.85 billion In addition to assistance to Israel, congressmen will discuss the introduction of sanctions against Iran’s oil sector.

The new Speaker of the House of Representatives, Republican Mike Johnson, said in an interview with Fox News on October 27 that he opposes a general aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. He stressed that providing support to Tel Aviv remains a priority. The first thing after his election, Johnson called on his colleagues, Democrats and Republicans, in the House of Representatives to approve a resolution on unconditional US support for Israel.

The initiative received almost unanimous support. 412 people voted in favor, 10 voted against, and six abstained. Of the 10 congressmen who opposed the resolution, nine came from the Democratic Party and one was a Republican. They justified their decision by the lack of mention of Palestinian victims in the resolution. Congressmen who broke away from the majority were criticized by their colleagues. “They don’t deserve to be here <...> These congressmen should resign in disgrace,” Republican Mike Lawler was quoted as saying by The New York Times.

In the initial overall aid package proposed by Biden, it was supposed to allocate $14.3 billion to Israel. Of this, according to CNN, $10.6 billion was to come from the Pentagon and aimed at arms supplies. Part of the funds will go to strengthen air defense, including the Iron Dome, David’s Sling and Iron Beam systems. The remaining $3.7 billion was to be allocated by the State Department for other needs of the Israeli army, as well as for strengthening the security of the American embassy. Discussing aid to Israel in an interview with Fox News, Johnson said the amount would be covered by cutting existing spending. “We will look for money in the budget, we do not print money to send it abroad. We will find where to cut,” Johnson emphasized. He did not specify which specific articles would be cut.

According to a joint YouGov and Economist poll conducted between October 21 and 24, 41% of Americans sympathize with Israelis, 13% with Palestinians, and 28% with both groups. A week earlier, 48% sympathized with the former, and 10% sympathized with the latter. Of those surveyed, 59% believe that the current conflict could lead to a full-scale war in the region. 32% support the deployment of American troops in the conflict zone, 39% are in favor of sending weapons to Israel. Also, 62% are in favor of sending humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip. At the same time, 47% believe that the United States should take some measures to resolve the conflict in the Middle East. 40% expressed similar views regarding the crisis in Ukraine.

On October 27, Reuters reported that House Republicans were discussing options to avoid a November 17 shutdown if Congress does not approve funding for the federal government for 2024. Johnson allowed a vote on short-term funding that would delay the deadline for approving the annual budget to mid-January or April 2024 Johnson warned that in exchange the Republicans were counting on “certain conditions,” without specifying which ones. One of the reasons for the removal of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy in early October was his approval of such short-term funding.

Johnson can either force the administration to change the contents of the combined package, demanding a reduction in aid to Ukraine in favor of Israel, or take money from social programs and climate initiatives, believes Vladimir Vasiliev, chief researcher at the Institute of the USA and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences. In addition to resistance from Democrats in the Senate and House, the speaker should expect disagreement from Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell, who advocates a combined military aid package that includes Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, the expert believes. In addition, Johnson may postpone the vote on aid to Ukraine for some time, Vasilyev believes. “Johnson does not want to lose his speakership, so he may begin to drag his feet on bringing the Ukrainian package to a vote,” the expert said. To do this, the speaker may consider the option of temporary financing of budget expenses [как это было сделано в конце сентября] and explain the lack of money for Ukraine by the need to prevent a shutdown, which could occur on November 17, Vasilyev believes.

The Republicans’ intention to urgently vote for aid to Israel fits not only into the logic of American foreign policy, but also into the logic of the impending election campaign, says Alexey Davydov, a senior researcher at the Center for North American Studies at IMEMO RAS. The expert explained that the Israeli package is important to Republicans for two reasons. The first is associated with the pro-Israeli sentiments of a significant part of the party electorate. The second is the desire of Republicans to accuse Democrats of delaying the process and, accordingly, of an irresponsible approach to US interests in the Middle East and specifically to Israel, which for many in American society is an object of religious feelings.

Davydov emphasizes that the Republicans will be practically united on this issue, since both the right wing and the mainstream support unconditional support for Israel. The difficulty, according to the expert, will be in coordinating this assistance with the Democrats. The latter, as the expert noted, are also ready to support Israel, but they pay more attention to Palestine. “There are definitely prerequisites for another split here,” Davydov concluded.