Meeting in San Francisco: Xi Jinping did not have dinner with Biden, but did not go hungry
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Sino-American relations are like two trains running in opposite directions on the same track. The Chinese propose to switch to parallel paths, while the Americans stubbornly follow a collision course. The talks between Xi Jinping and Biden in San Francisco became another illustration of this unfortunate reality.
After the destruction of the Chinese “great white ball” over America in February of this year and, with it, hopes for solving the most important bilateral problems, Beijing declared a boycott of Washington. Significant ties between key departments, including the military, which were interrupted after Nancy Pelosi’s controversial visit to Taiwan in August 2022, have again been severed. Xi Jinping even stopped answering Biden’s phone calls. It took a series of contrite visits to Beijing by members of Biden’s cabinet, including Blinken, Raimondo, Kerry and Yellen, to calm the atmosphere. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen played a special role. She apparently promised He Lifeng, Xi Jinping’s top economic and financial adviser, an easing of trade and technology sanctions against China if direct ties with Biden were resumed.
Having received certain guarantees, Beijing began preparing for its leader’s visit to San Francisco. The tone of propaganda softened, and nostalgic publications appeared about Chinese-American interaction during the war against Japan. The contrast with the recent heightened criticism of the US was obvious and was attributed by China experts to the difficulties in the economy. American trade and technological sanctions were cited as one of the reasons for these difficulties.
The priority of the sanctions issue was evident in the official Chinese media reports on the negotiations in San Francisco. “Xi Jinping says he hopes US sanctions will be lifted,” read a headline in People’s Daily. The newspaper further reported: “China hopes the US will lift unilateral sanctions and ensure a non-discriminatory business environment for Chinese companies, Chinese President Xi Jinping said on Wednesday at a meeting with US President Joe Biden in San Francisco. China’s development and growth have an internal logic and will not be stopped by external forces, Xi Jinping said. He expressed hope that “the United States will take China’s concerns seriously, take action and lift unilateral sanctions to ensure a fair, just and non-discriminatory environment for Chinese enterprises.”
The economic situation in China is really not the best; there are plenty of problems. But, as they say, “I would like your problems, Mr. Teacher.” The latest IMF forecast promises China a GDP growth of 5.4% for this year. American sanctions are putting significant pressure on Beijing. Agreeing to at least lift restrictions on American investment in high-tech industries and a ban on the export of chips would be a success for the chairman. Returning to the status quo of 2018, when Trump started a trade war, is the ultimate dream. Trump then took Xi Jinping by surprise. After 40 years of a “marriage of convenience” concluded by Deng Xiaoping and Carter, a “breaking divorce” began. But even without special love, the “marriage of convenience” turned out to be very productive. Until now, the United States and China are closely connected by many trade chains and humanitarian ties. Trade last year: $680 billion. The number of Chinese students in the United States is 280 thousand.
This is the reason for Beijing’s desire to at least slow down the inevitable “divorce.” He needs to gain time to weaken his dependence on foreign markets in general, and the American one in the first place. Xi Jinping is running a long race – the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” is set for 2049. Biden is barely completing a four-year “100-meter hurdles” with no real chance of a “second wind.” He cannot make long-term promises, and Xi Jinping does not expect them. Only limited and temporary compromises. But even these, it seems, could not be achieved.
The efforts of Yellen and, possibly, Biden himself to establish a truce in the trade war with China were thwarted by that part of the “deep state” that does not see the possibility of geopolitical compromises with a growing China. This became known in the White House shortly before the start of Xi Jinping’s already announced visit to San Francisco. Hectic negotiations followed between Yellen and He Lifeng, who had flown in from Beijing. But even a small breakthrough on the economic track of the negotiations between the heads of state was not achieved.
The only new thing was an agreement on cooperation in the fight against the drug fentanyl, the distribution of which in America has acquired the scale of the “opium war” and the production of which in Mexico is being tied to China. Another result is the resumption of military contacts. This is really just restoring the status quo after the Bali meeting. Airplanes and ships of the United States and China are increasingly crossing paths in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. Critical situations inevitably arise that need to be promptly discussed at a high level. Direct communication between the two commanders-in-chief has also been restored. Biden was as happy as a child and repeated several times that they now promised to answer his calls to Beijing. However, possible preliminary agreements on other concessions by Xi Jinping on bilateral and international issues were thwarted by a refusal to ease trade sanctions. The negotiations ended inconclusively, and the pent-up anger was expressed in an insulting attack about “dictatorship.”
Despite the minimal results of interstate negotiations, Xi Jinping continues to count on maintaining trade with America and dialogue with business circles not controlled by the “deep state.” It is significant that in those moments when President Biden was calling President Xi Jinping a “dictator,” leading US businessmen gave a standing ovation to the Chinese leader at a dinner party in his honor. The absence of a final joint meal between the two presidents at the end of difficult negotiations was supposed to emphasize the intransigence of the owner of the White House towards the guest. But he did not remain hungry. Xi Jinping’s popularity in San Francisco would be the envy of the most inspired violinist or the most refined tenor. 400 tickets for the $40,000 dinner party sold out instantly, and dozens of people who were late to the box office of the US-China Business Council and the National Committee on US-China Relations stood at the entrance to the banquet hall all evening, waiting for an “extra ticket.”
This was a demonstration of disagreement with the anti-China strategy of the “deep state”, which is leading the world’s two largest economies to a frontal collision. The best managers of America stood up and applauded the manager of the “China Corporation”, who developed a long-term strategy for the “Great Revival of the Chinese Nation” and has been implementing it exactly according to plan for 11 years now with an iron fist in a kid glove. “Captains of Business” expressed their gratitude for the opportunity to make big money in the Middle Kingdom and in America itself. They expressed hope for maintaining business ties despite the quarrelsome inhabitants of the “Washington swamp.”
In his speech, a broadly smiling Xi Jinping turned to the origins of the rapprochement between China and the United States during the “ping-pong diplomacy” in 1971. The cunning trick of Zhou Enlai and Kissinger of inviting the American ping-pong team to Beijing from a competition in Tokyo created a friendly environment in which Mao Zedong and Richard Nixon could meet. Five decades later, Xi Jinping repeated the technique of “people’s diplomacy” and promised to return to America pandas, recently “recalled” back to China amid a worsening political climate.
Serious words were also heard from the podium, which were probably spoken shortly before to Biden. “If we view each other as our biggest rival, our greatest geopolitical challenge, and our ever-growing threat, it will inevitably lead to bad policies, bad actions, and bad consequences. China wants to be America’s partner and friend.” Xi Jinping also repeated his favorite geopolitical mantra of recent months: “Great changes are taking place in the world, the likes of which have not been seen for 100 years.” Their future now depends on Washington and Beijing – interaction or confrontation.
The cost of the questions posed by Xi Jinping is colossal. It does not come down to hundreds of billions of trade turnover or capital investments. The “deep state”, through the mouth of President Biden, gave its answer, which was clearly negative. The business community will try to give a different answer, although it does not have aircraft carriers and irreconcilable “knights of the Cold War” at its disposal.
In San Francisco, the leaders of China and the United States tried to take a step forward in bilateral relations. It appears that this attempt was not a major success. In the words of Chairman Mao Zedong: “The prospects are bright, but the path is tortuous.”
Newspaper headline:
Meeting in San Francisco: a step forward and a step back
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