Master’s calculation – Newspaper Kommersant No. 206 (7407) dated 11/08/2022

The presentation of the participants of the World Cup opening on November 20 “Kommersant” begins with group A, which brought together four teams of different status. The Dutch one is similar to the one that you want, albeit with reservations, to write down as contenders for very serious achievements, the Senegalese one is quite ready to shoot a dark horse quite loudly under a successful set of circumstances, the Ecuadorian one is a classic middle peasant not without ambitions and virtues, and the Qatari one is on a classic outsider: even native fields and native weather are unlikely to help him.

The temptation to record the Netherlands national team, perhaps not even in an expanded, but compressed to a shortlist, list of contenders for the World Cup awards is really great. Formal, conspicuous reasons for its inclusion in it are quite enough – there is no need to invent anything.

In the second half of the last decade, this team went through a crisis, and its peak was the flight past the Russian world championship in 2018. But now, of course, there is no talk of any crisis, and if you wish, you can find clear signs of a rapid movement forward in the fresh results of the Dutch. They looked like an unconditional grandee who regained their former gloss even at last year’s European Championship, however, only before they stumbled upon the Czechs in the starting round of the playoffs and lost to them, managing not to deliver a single shot on target. But after that tournament, veteran Louis van Gaal replaced Frank de Boer as coach of the Netherlands, and it turned out that in his eighties he was still able to put the game on trend and effective. The best illustration of trendiness is very fresh. This year in the Nations League, the Dutch, playing in a strong group, scored five victories in six matches, slightly spoiling the statistics of a draw with the Poles. And among these victories, two took place in matches with the Belgians, whom anyone will certainly include in the shortlist of prize hunters without much hesitation, away – with a score of 4:1.

And after the results, of course, everyone who likes the Dutch, proving their potential, will name bright names, which, even without the injured Georginio Wijnaldum, will be full in their application. Virgil van Dijk is the standard of a central defender, Matthijs de Ligt is also an exceptionally talented player of this role, Denzel Dumfries is almost the standard of a flank defender, Frenkie de Jong is a football player with a colossal dispatching gift, and Memphis Depay scores in the national team with the regularity of a hockey sniper.

But still, betting on the Dutch, apparently, should be done with caution, adding a number of important reservations. Well, for example, about the fact that they don’t have either an elite goalkeeper or an elite forward, by the highest standards, who would feel good on the edge. Or about the fact that this season de Jong in Barcelona is on the sidelines, and Depay is sitting on the bench at all and their tone raises questions. And van Dijk has long acquired the habit of getting hurt at the most inopportune moment.

The Senegal national team is the reigning champion of Africa, and this is already a good characteristic, given the rather high density of football competition in this region. And in order to finally get rid of doubts about the height of its Qatari ceiling, you should take a closer look at the Senegalese shots. The summer transfer from Liverpool to Bayern did not affect Sadio Mane’s productivity in any way: he still scores and assists teammates. Edouard Mendy has become a top goalkeeper at Chelsea. The fact that the Londoners bought his compatriot Kalidou Koulibaly in the offseason was also perceived by experts as a completely natural step: few people play so confidently in the center of defense. Idrissa Geye, Ismaila Sarr, Sheikha Kouyate play or have played in the leading leagues. In general, this is not a bad set, with which it is somehow even strange to dream only of leaving the group – you can seem to look further away.

But one circumstance prevents the Senegalese from being called an unconditional equal to the same Dutch, and even more so to giants with an impeccable reputation. They have everything in order with the rear, with the attacking line, but the key line, the middle one still decently sags. Geia and Kouyate are in their thirties and far from being as mobile as they were when they were young, but coach Aliou Cisse still has to rely on them: there is no adequate replacement at hand. Lately, Cisse tried to disguise the difficulties by varying tactical schemes, but this did not always help. The Senegalese got to the title of continental champion and a ticket to the World Cup by no means on the red carpet, but often suffering in survival mode.

The Ecuadorian national team against the background of the Senegalese and Dutch looks a bit unsightly. Those who are not crazy about South American football, trying to keep track of everything that happens in it, should be familiar with two or three of its players, hardly more. This, for example, is the progressive young midfielder of the English “Brighton” Moises Caicedo, who closes the support zone, and the “dinosaur” of the Ecuadorian attack Enner Valencia. But you should definitely know about this team that it plays football that is terribly uncomfortable for strong opponents, the exact opposite of the classic Latin American style. In it, instead of subtlety – rigidity, instead of passion – discipline, instead of attack – counterattack. At the same time, the system built by coach Gustavo Alfaro practically does not fail: Ecuadorians, as a rule, have to gnaw out points.

All these teams will have to deal in a quartet with the hosts of the World Cup. Their own audience, their stadiums, their own specific, that is, most likely, hot and stuffy weather – these are all their trump cards. The Qataris cannot count on the class of football players. In the local press, of course, some are singled out – for example, forwards Akram Afif and Almuz Ali, who interact well with each other. But these, like the rest of the Qatari footballers, are stars of an exclusively local scale, playing in the local championship, and European championships are not of interest. It is incredibly difficult to imagine that, having no experience in big tournaments, they suddenly crack down on the Dutch or Senegalese, and the compilers of the ratings of the World Cup participants, no matter what country they come from, always confidently send the Qatar team to the bottom, 32nd line.

Alexey Dospekhov