March of the left deviators – Newspaper Kommersant No. 146 (7347) of 08/12/2022
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On Wednesday, at the TASS site, experts presented a report by the Prospective Policy Foundation on the prospects of the leftist agenda. According to its authors, in the future in Russia, a request for it may be updated. Experts do not predict the emergence of a new leftist party and rather bet on the renewal and strengthening of some of the existing leftist forces. Thus, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation can strengthen itself by updating its leaders. A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) will need to unite with weaker left-wing parties and organizations to be successful. Finally, the “New People” (NL) also have a chance of success, which, due to “meta-ideology”, can respond to the left request with the help of right-wing mechanisms.
On the TASS platform on August 11, political scientists presented the report “Left Agenda 2022 in Russia and the World: Challenges, Opportunities, New Leaders”. Its authors believe that a special military operation (SVO) in Ukraine will lead to an increase in demand for the “leftist idea”. The “current global political crisis” and “inevitable economic crisis” will lead to this, the report says. As Oleg Bondarenko, director of the Progressive Policy Foundation, explained during the discussion, left-wing parties are unlikely to receive “good interest” in the upcoming regional elections, but after the end of the NVO, Russian politics will be “zeroed” and updated in terms of persons. Experts consider the emergence of an “absolutely new leftist party” unlikely. Therefore, during the discussion, they analyzed the current state of affairs.
The Communist Party of the Russian Federation, according to the authors of the study, remains the main opposition force, although “there is no merit of the party leadership” in this. Mr. Bondarenko explained that the party acquired this status due to the problems that the authorities face “in the field”, and the Communists “technically” collect. The expert also singled out a number of regions in which the party has a particularly strong political position. These are the Angara region, where the ex-governor of the Irkutsk region Sergey Levchenko is still popular, Buryatia, which is represented in the Duma by the communist Vyacheslav Markhaev, Ulyanovsk region and Khakassia, which are headed by the communists Alexei Russkikh and Valentin Konovalov, Novosibirsk, whose mayor is another representative of the Communist Party Anatoly Lokot, the Republic of Mari El, in which the communists overtook United Russia in the Duma elections, and the Oryol region (albeit “with questions”) under the leadership of another governor of the Communist Party, Andrei Klychkov. Oleg Bondarenko believes that the party at the moment “has given up flirting with the non-systemic opposition,” and its representatives, who opposed the SVO, have been relegated to the background. In addition, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation did not actively participate in the elections in those regions where it could count on success, although it could get second place in the municipal elections in Moscow. Mr. Bondarenko does not believe in the merger of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation with Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP), since the parties have different electorates: “CPRF voters who prefer Stalin will not agree with moderate SRZP voters who prefer the ideology of such a more social democratic persuasion, Plekhanov’s spill, if you like.”
According to experts, in the future, as a result of a change in the leadership of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, the party may move away from its “Stalinist positions.” In their report, they identified six politicians who, one way or another, can claim leadership in the renewed Communist Party – these are the aforementioned Alexei Russkikh, Andrey Klychkov and Anatoly Lokot, as well as State Duma deputies, Deputy Chairman of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation Yuri Afonin, Denis Parfyonov and writer Sergei Shargunov.
As for the SRZP, according to RANEPA professor Sergey Serebrennikov, it is the strongest Russian party of a social democratic persuasion. However, although before last year’s Duma elections, sociologists spoke about the readiness of every fourth Russian voter to support the social-democratic agenda, the result of the Socialist-Revolutionaries in them was only 7.46%. The party was unable to articulate the agenda, Mr. Serebrennikov believes. In his opinion, the pre-election association of the Righteous Russians with Za Pravda is now playing the party in the negative – “a certain radicalism of the group of Zakhar Prilepin (co-chairman of the SRZP.— “b”) scares away the moderate electorate of party chairman Sergei Mironov.” In addition, the weak development of trade unions plays against the social democratic agenda in Russia, he believes. Mr. Serebrennikov also noted the expulsion of the Socialist-Revolutionaries from the Socialist International. The expert called the presence of politicians who are able to offer an alternative economic model, such as State Duma deputies Mikhail Delyagin and Alexander Babakov, a plus for SRHR. Sergei Serebrennikov also considers the idea of a “Eurasian Union in the format of the USSR 2.0” promoted by the party to be successful. According to experts, in the future the SRHR may be strengthened by the addition of other moderate left forces, among which, in particular, the Russian Party of Pensioners for Justice.
In the context of the left agenda, experts also mentioned the New People party: the authors of the study believe that it initially balanced between “right-wing populism and left-wing liberalism.” President of the Center for Regional Policy Development Ilya Grashchenkov characterizes the party’s ideology as a “meta-ideology” that is neither purely right-wing nor left-wing, which allows the party to raise issues relevant to the voter. Experts believe that this may allow the IP to respond to the request for a left-wing agenda, implementing it, including through right-wing mechanisms. The authors of the report believe that the current demand of small businesses, or “small shopkeepers”, is also partly “leftist”. Namely, NL support small entrepreneurs. In addition, Mr. Grashchenkov mentioned that after the NWO in Russia, the problem of “new poor” may arise. According to Mr. Grashchenkov, “IT specialists” and “former business owners” can get into them. It is the NL, experts believe, that will come to the aid of these people. Mr. Grashchenkov also mentioned that the party could raise the topics of gender equality, ecology and sustainable development.
Commenting on the conclusions of the authors of the study, political scientist Vladimir Shemyakin notes that politics in Russia is traditionally personified and elections in recent decades have not been a struggle of programs. Mr. Shemyakin admits that in the coming years the proportion of supporters of one or another view may change, but he doubts that the current traditional parties and their leaders will be perceived by anyone as spokesmen for new ideas. At the same time, the expert sees a new structure, which, according to him, has every chance of success in Russian politics in the future: “Now volunteer battalions are being created in the regions to participate in the SVO. Tomorrow, these are ready-made regional structures for a new party. We remember the role that organizations of Afghan veterans played in Russia in the last century.”
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