Kurdish-Arab clashes continue in northern Syria

The uprising of Arab tribes against the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) began on 30 August. By September 6, according to the Syrian Human Rights Monitoring Center (SOHR) in London, the death toll on both sides had topped 90. Since 2014, the SDF has been supported by the United States and the American-led coalition against ISIS (the group has been recognized as a terrorist group and banned in Russia). US military bases are located in the territories controlled by the SDF in northeast Syria.

Russia continues to adhere to the Sochi agreements [2019 г. о контроле территорий на северо-востоке Сирии], Presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov told Vedomosti, answering a question about the situation in this region in connection with clashes between Arabs and Kurds. “Unfortunately, they have not yet been fully implemented. And at the same time, Russia continues its consistent line of providing assistance to the legitimate leadership of Syria, restoring order in the country and combating terrorist elements,” Peskov said.

The Arab majority and the politically dominant Kurdish minority maintained a situational alliance within the Council of Democratic Syria. This council is the political structure of the self-proclaimed Autonomous Administration of Northern Syria (other names are Syrian Kurdistan, or Rojava). The delicate balance was upset by the arrest by the Kurds of the head of the Military Council of Deir az-Zor, Al Habil, on August 27 on criminal charges and contacts with the Russian-backed government of Bashar al-Assad.

Speaking to AP on Sept. 5, council spokesman Farhad Shami accused Assad’s government and his allied Iran of provoking an uprising to force US troops allied with the Kurds to leave the region. Damascus has been trying to occupy territories in the northeast of Syria for a long time, but so far it controls only the cities of Kamyshly, Hasek, the roads to them, as well as some sections of the border with Turkey – according to the agreements reached in Sochi in 2019 with the mediation of Russia.

The SDF has lost control of more than 30 locations in the provinces of Deir ez-Zor and Hasek since the end of August. The US called on the Kurds and Arabs to end the clashes. On September 2, the Anadolu agency reported on American airstrikes in the province of Deir ez-Zor.

Arab-Kurdish clashes also began in northern Syria – in the province of Aleppo near the city of Manbij, where the zones of control of the government, the Council of Democratic Syria of the pro-Turkish Syrian opposition converge. The situation of the parties in Manbij is different: since 2019, Damascus has agreed with the local Kurds and supports them against the pro-Turkish forces. In turn, the pro-Turkish formations supported their former Arab allies who rebelled against the Kurds.

On September 5, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, commenting on the situation, repeated Moscow’s position condemning US support for the SDF, which does not allow the Assad government to take full control over northern Syria. “The result of this is the current outbreak of violent clashes between Kurdish combat units and Arab tribal militias,” Zakharova said, adding that the impossibility of Damascus’ complete control over the region could lead to a “revival” of ISIS.

The uprising of the Arab tribes was provoked by the Council of Democratic Syria and its military wing of the SDF, led by Kurdish left-wing radical formations, says Kirill Semenov, an expert at the Russian Council on International Affairs. He explained that the long-term interference of ethnic Kurds in the management of the most profitable areas of the economy, the exclusion of ethnic Arabs from high positions, the promotion of secular ideology and women’s rights irritated the Arab allies of the Kurds.

Semyonov believes that the rebellious Arab tribes, although they have a channel of communication with Assad, “do not share his principles of governance.” “For Moscow and Damascus, these speeches are rather beneficial, as they weaken the influence of the United States. It is theoretically possible to agree with the tribes on a special regime of relations with Damascus under Russian guarantees, while maintaining armed formations and internal self-government,” Semyonov believes. In Manbij, the expert sees a solution in the Kurds transferring their positions opposite the pro-Turkish formations to government troops, which will ensure negotiations between the Arabs and Damascus. But Semyonov sees no prerequisites for further escalation and unfreezing of the Syrian civil war.

This conflict has been brewing for a long time, but it became possible right now, since several players at once considered that they were able to change the status quo, Nikolai Surkov, senior researcher at IMEMO RAS, believes. Turkey, Russia, Iran and the Assad government hope to push out the Americans for mutual benefit against the backdrop of their not very active support for the Kurds in recent years, Surkov explains. The Americans sponsoring the Kurds understood the threat, tried to convince the Kurds to expand the rights and representation of the Arabs, to make the distribution of resources more equitable – but in vain, the expert recalls.

“Now a lot depends on how intensively Washington is ready to support the Kurds. It is likely that as a result of the confrontation, the territory controlled by the Kurds will be reduced, they will leave part of the areas inhabited by Arabs. Although the very project of their autonomy is unlikely to collapse in the near future,” Surkov notes. He also recalled that it is strategically important for the Assad government, which is allied with Russia and Iran, to return the territory of the northeast under its control – there are not only the main oil and gas fields, but also sown areas for grain, water resources. “This is especially important against the background of the difficult situation with the food supply in the territory controlled by Damascus, it mainly has to be received from abroad,” Surkov said.