Knutov predicted the tactics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine during the offensive: “a thousand injections”

The announced offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, according to a number of experts, will most likely be postponed to the beginning of summer. The enemy is now prevented from advancing by failure in Bakhmut (Artemovsk) and the lack of the required amount of equipment. Is it really? “MK” talked with a military expert, director of the Air Defense Museum Yuri Knutov and found out what the strengths and weaknesses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are and how the enemy’s offensive will look like.

This week, Deputy Ukrainian Defense Minister Anna Malyar shocked many with a statement that the announced offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is already underway in the area of ​​Krasny Liman, Artemivsk, Avdiivka and Marniki. At the same time, according to rumors, the commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valery Zaluzhny, proposed to postpone the offensive that had not yet begun until the summer, since Ukraine needs to “lick its wounds” after the failure in Bakhmut and accumulate the necessary amount of equipment.

According to military expert Yuri Knutov, the likelihood that the enemy will try to launch an offensive is quite high. Otherwise, Zelensky will soon be replaced by a more accommodating leader, for example, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny.

– In my opinion, Ukraine will try to use the old proven tactics, as they called it – “a thousand injections” – when a giant is struck with a thousand blows with needles, and he bleeds. These “thousand jabs” – blows in different places – tangible, but not fatal. With their help, the enemy will try to probe our defenses, find the most vulnerable places in order to break through there later. This is one of the options.

Another offensive option, according to the expert, may be associated with a breakthrough in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions.

– There is a possibility of undermining the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station. If they blow up the dam, and this can be done with massive HIMARS strikes in any one section, then the water will begin to rise in the Dnieper downstream. As a result, our fortifications on the left bank of the Dnieper will be flooded, because the left bank, as you know, is lower than the right. The Zaporozhye nuclear power plant may also be flooded. While we are engaged in evacuation, the same special forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can seize a bridgehead on the left bank, in order to later use it to build up forces and move towards the Sea of ​​\u200b\u200bAzov or Crimea. These are hypothetical scenarios, but theoretically they are possible.

As for armored vehicles, artillery and aviation, here, according to the expert, our troops have an overwhelming advantage. But with drones, the situation is ambiguous.

– If we are talking about drones, then, I think, there is parity here, and maybe even some superiority in Ukraine. We do not know which drones and in what quantity the West supplied Kyiv. Drones can become the strike force that the enemy can use to strike at our logistics centers, command posts, warehouses in the immediate rear, so that it would be difficult for us to bring up ammunition and manage waxes.

But the situation with the enemy’s air defense is not the most rosy, a military analyst believes.

– The enemy really has a big shortage of anti-aircraft missiles, especially for the S-300, Buk-M1 complexes. The Americans adapted Sea Sparrow missiles for Ukrainian Buk-M1 systems. The range of their action is from 30 to 50 kilometers, the working height is about 15-20 kilometers. That is, a completely normal means of destruction that can be used in the fight not only against cruise missiles, but also against aircraft. But there are not many such complexes.

At the same time, a quite reasonable question arises: how can one go on the offensive in the absence of air defense systems and missiles for them? Yuriy Knutov explained that the Ukrainians have replaced the classic air defense systems.

– The fact is that the enemy is installing man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS) of the Stinger type on mobile platforms. BMP “Styker” on a wheeled chassis, for example, are equipped with air defense missiles, in fact, the same “Stinger”. The enemy has very, very many such mobile air defense systems. At the same time, it is problematic for them to operate at high altitudes. At medium altitudes, they have nothing to shoot with, except for the Buk-M1 complex.

According to Yuriy Knutov, the Buk-M1 complex with American missiles can hit our bombers, which is why the Russian military is now trying to strike without entering the Ukrainian air defense coverage area.

– To do this, we have created controlled panic bombs – 500-kilogram, ton and one and a half ton. We have already demonstrated them in Artemovsk and Avdeevka. They worked very effectively, so there is hope that our Aerospace Forces will be able to thwart the enemy’s offensive.

Despite many obvious shortcomings of the enemy army, it has a real advantage, the analyst believes.

– The Armed Forces of Ukraine have only one advantage – the number of personnel, – said the expert. – From 100 to 300 thousand soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are now assembled on the line of contact. According to other sources – up to half a million. If we drive them to the slaughter without sparing, then, of course, at some point in the weak points of our defense, which will be revealed during reconnaissance in force, we can try to break through … Nevertheless, we are ready for the enemy’s offensive. We have serious fortifications with long-range artillery. And most importantly, our Aerospace Forces have received new glide bombs that allow you to destroy enemy manpower and weapons concentrations. So the initiative is not with the enemy.