Joe Biden becomes the uncontested Democratic nominee

US President Joe Biden officially announced on April 25 his decision to run for re-election in 2024. He did this by posting a three-minute video on Youtube. “When I ran for president four years ago, I said we were fighting for the soul of America. And we are still alive. That’s why I’m running for re-election,” Biden said.

He was about to “finish the job,” he said, when the US was facing a “deadly pandemic” and the economy and democracy were under threat. As a threat to democracy, he called “MAGA extremists” (Make America Great Again, Donald Trump’s 2020 campaign slogan). Later, Vice President Kamala Harris announced that she would be running again in 2024 along with Biden.

Usually, about a year and a half before the election, the incumbent announces whether he will be re-elected, says Victoria Zhuravleva, head of the Center for North American Studies at IMEMO RAS. The likelihood that Biden would do this was very high, since this fits well into the American tradition, the expert adds. An alternative candidate from the Democratic Party is not expected, since the party is relying on the incumbent president. Biden, despite his venerable age, is quite active and healthy, and therefore he, in fact, did not have the opportunity not to announce re-election, the expert believes. But at the same time, if something suddenly happens to Biden during the election race, the Democrats will find themselves in a stalemate, as they will not have time to find and prepare another candidate, Zhuravleva notes. The transition of the nomination to Kamala Harris will undermine the position of the party, since it has very weak support even against the backdrop of Biden.

But if Biden gets to the elections, then he has a very real chance of winning again, Zhuravleva is sure. Traditionally, Americans, with rare exceptions, as with Donald Trump in 2020, support the incumbent president running for a second term in elections. In addition, the Democrats have a very serious tool for mobilizing the population – this is the desire to prevent Trump from returning to power again, the expert notes. Another high-profile topic that will be heated up by the Democrats in the election campaign will be the topic of the ban on abortion, Zhuravleva says. Trump may well become the Republican nominee, and then the 2020 duel will be repeated again, the analyst admits. In this case, Trump will use in his rhetoric the theme of the stolen elections in 2020 and the fight against the “deep state” as his tool to mobilize the electorate, the expert concludes.

The US has a multi-stage electoral system, and one of the campaigns will begin in the fall, namely, party voting. That is why now all candidates for the presidency are officially announcing their nomination, Lev Sokolshchik, Research Fellow at the Central Research Institute of the National Research University Higher School of Economics, explains. Biden delayed the announcement somewhat, the reasons for this were internal party processes, deteriorating economic indicators, and the age of the president himself. But, according to the expert, Biden is not going to voluntarily give up power at the peak of his political career. Moreover, due to historical practice, the incumbent is usually the undisputed favorite of the race and receives the nomination from his own party. If we do not consider extreme scenarios, such as the deterioration of Biden’s health or the US default, this practice will not change, Sokolshchik believes.

The main intrigue now lies in the choice of the candidate of the Republican Party. Trump is under investigation, and his main rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, is confidently gaining points. Nevertheless, Trump has a high chance of being nominated by the party. According to Sokolshchik, despite the criminal case initiated against him, due to his charisma, political instinct and talent, he will be able to get away with it and use the accusations in his favor. Republican and Democratic candidates have equally high chances of success, Sokolshchik believes. At the time of voting, key economic indicators are often evidence of the success of an administration. Therefore, it is necessary to wait for the start of the campaign, but at the moment the dynamics in the economy are rather negative, which reduces the likelihood of Biden’s success, Sokolshchik concludes.

Biden’s approval rating is now 42%, but it must be remembered that Barack Obama and Ronald Reagan with similar ratings were re-elected, says Alexei Naumov, an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council. Biden, over the years of his presidency, has enlisted the support of all grassroots organizations, so we can say that he will not have competitors within the party, the expert is sure.

Biden announced his participation in the presidential election right now, as there are 18 months left before the start of the election, which he can use to raise money for the election campaign. At the same time, Biden was able to build a certain image, the expert believes: now he is in the second stage of the “battle for democracy.” The first stage was after the storming of the Capitol, and the second was the armed conflict in Ukraine, Naumov says. As for Biden’s rival Trump, his approval rating averages 38%, and strong competition is expected among Republicans. According to Naumov, it is worth paying special attention to DeSantis, as he is one of the few politicians whose approval rating exceeds the disapproval rating.