“It will start with counterattacks”: Hero of Russia Klupov called “signs” of a new offensive in Ukraine

However, every time we get acquainted with a new report from the Northern Military District zone, we again hear that the enemy continues to persistently, but unsuccessfully, gnaw at our defenses, and again there is no talk of any offensive of ours. And ahead is autumn, muddy roads, which are clearly not conducive to the offensive.

Military intelligence veteran, Hero of Russia, Colonel Rustem Klupov told MK about whether we should wait for our offensive this fall and what conditions should exist at the front for this to happen.

“There is no need to rush anyone,” the expert believes. – Why do we need this rush? For the sake of putting on a show?

– Why? It’s just that in the West they are already openly talking about our counterattack, but we still don’t see it.

– Any counterattack, counterattack – and it all starts with counterattacks, after which a counterattack is delivered – occurs after the enemy troops have crossed the front line. That is, a counterattack and counterattack are carried out in the interests of restoring the situation along the front line.

For example, now the Ukrainian Armed Forces have captured Rabotino and are wedging into our defense somewhere in other directions. If we start a movement to restore our leading edge, this is called counterattacks and counterattacks. Well, what if the Ukrainians have not yet crossed our front line? The fighting is mainly carried out only in the support zone. Then where should we conduct our counterattacks and counterattacks? All normal military personnel begin to count from the front line.

– What can be considered the leading edge?

– The so-called “Surovikin line”. When on TV or somewhere in the public domain Ukrainians show their photos against the backdrop of those very “dragon’s teeth” – anti-tank tetrahedrons that are installed on this line or against the backdrop of our anti-tank ditches, this will mean that they have approached our front line . So far this is not even close.

– It turns out that we must wait for their successful offensive and breakthrough of the front line of our defense?

– Actually, according to the classics, troops begin a counterattack after the enemy has reached the second line of our defense. Otherwise, if you attack him, as they say, from a neutral zone, you can get a counter battle.

– What is a counter battle?

– About the same as what happened during the Great Patriotic War near Prokhorovka. The Germans were advancing, we threw our tank units there. Our T-34s went against their Tigers, and it turned out to be a counter battle. The most insane and unpredictable type of combat that can lead to huge losses.

As a boxing fan, I often compare the situation at the front with a classic boxing fight. Usually there one boxer adheres to defensive tactics, the other – offensive. But this does not mean that the one who defends is weaker. He is simply looking for the moment when he can counterattack. It’s exactly the same here: we need to fulfill the conditions for launching counterattacks, both at the tactical and operational levels.

– What if the Ukrainian Armed Forces are never able to reach our second line of defense?

– So, we need to drag them in there. Give them the opportunity to feel that they are strong and still capable of attacking.

If they feel that they have lost their offensive capabilities, they will immediately go on the defensive. They will burrow into the ground, regroup troops, create reserves, bring up artillery and create all the conditions so that we will have to attack their prepared defenses.

– But what if the Americans now, after the obvious failure of the “counter-offensive” of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, force the Ukrainians to go on the defensive? Or, in your opinion, will they still demand that the Ukrainian Armed Forces attack?

– Sooner or later, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will definitely go on the defensive. But as soon as they do this, immediately expect our counterattack. And fast. It is always done like this: the first day – we saw that the enemy had stopped and was no longer going to move forward. The second day – he was hit by fire. Third day – a counterattack is carried out.

Simply put, there are four main conditions for counterattacking. First, the enemy must be stopped after he has exhausted all his offensive capabilities. Secondly, it must be hit by fire. Third, the enemy has exhausted all his reserves by this time or does not have the opportunity to transfer these reserves to the front line. And fourth – this already concerns us – we must have the necessary forces and means to launch a counterattack.

“And the enemy is now very afraid of these forces that we are preparing for a counterattack.” Constantly wondering how many reserves we have and where they are?

– Yes, because with the troops that were defending, the maximum that can be carried out is a counterattack. The counterattack at the operational level should be carried out by fresh forces – operational reserves.

– And when all these four conditions are met, can we expect our counterattack?

– Yes, his task is to restore the front line along the front line, to return those territories that the Ukrainians “gnawed off” from us during their “counter-offensive.” And when we move beyond our front line, we will begin our counteroffensive, which will gradually develop into a full-fledged offensive.

– Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Malyar announces the assault by our troops on Avdeevka and Marinka. He says that the Russians continue to actively move forward there. Can this already be considered the beginning of our offensive?

– If Ukraine had said that we brought our reserves into battle there and named the numbers of two or three fresh brigades that had not previously taken part in battles, then yes, this could already be called the beginning of a counteroffensive. But until this happens, we are not bringing our reserves into battle.

Now, when the offensive was underway near Kupyansk, Avdeevka, and in other places, these were all counterattacks of tactical significance, when there was a struggle for a dominant position. Problems were solved at the tactical level of our defending troops.

– But we should still wait for our attack?

– Definitely. Defense has the main goal of creating favorable conditions for conducting offensive operations in the future.