It turned out which areas of the economy will hit the 11th package of anti-Russian sanctions

The European Union is preparing to introduce a new, 11th package of anti-Russian sanctions. This time, according to the idea of ​​Brussels, under the cap will fall parallel imports of consumer goods that enter our country, albeit officially, but in a roundabout way. “Unfriendly” Europeans intend to vigilantly ensure that prohibited (sanctioned) goods from third countries do not get to us. This was told by the head of the European Commission Ursula von der Leinen. Most likely, punitive measures will rebound on many of our international partners.

The European Union introduced a ban on the sale of European dual-use goods to Russia in the 10th package of its sanctions at the end of February this year. And I already managed to understand that this measure does not give the desired effect. According to Ursula von der Leinen, Brussels noticed a discrepancy between how many goods from the EU go to third countries in transit through Russia and how much ends up in them. According to European counters, it turns out a discrepancy

It should be understood that when transporting cargo from point A (from the European Union) to point B (a third country), part of the goods settles in Russia. Therefore, as a deterrent measure, the issue of introducing a ban on the transit of European goods through the territory of the Russian Federation to third countries is being discussed there.

However, domestic carriers argue that the principle of transit is that the seal from the cargo is not broken along the entire route from the point of departure to the addressee.

– Automobile transportation with the EU countries is practically stopped today, – explained Bogdan Antonenko, Chairman of the Board of the United Association of Carriers. – Basically, they are carried out by sea, containers from Europe come to the port of Novorossiysk. Already there they are reloaded onto road transport – in the same containers and with the same seals. And they deliver the goods, as a rule, to the countries of Central Asia. No one can look into the container, let alone “work” on the cargo there.

However, the European Union goes further. He wants to raise the issue of restricting trade with states that supply us with European dual-use goods. They, that is, third countries, buy goods in Europe as if for their own needs, and then resell them to Russia. Brussels is determined to close this “shop” as well – if such acts are legally proven. In this case, Europe intends to simply not supply sanctioned goods to the “fine” third countries.

Here it is appropriate to recall that the parallel import of goods that the Russian market needs was launched exactly a year ago. According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, on average, $2.5 billion worth of consumer goods comes to us through this channel per month. By the beginning of 2023, the total volume of purchases for parallel imports was estimated at about $20 billion. However, the European Union, as we can see, is determined to stop this flow .

Many experts are very skeptical about the new European sanctions included in the 11th package. It is one thing, they say, to “butt” with Russia, to impose restrictions only on her. And it is quite another thing to stretch tentacles halfway around the world and monitor every box that has entered or left a third country.

Today, about 60 countries are unfriendly states. The rest – and there are almost 2.5 times more of them on the globe – are friendly towards Russia or neutral, with which we maintain quite normal trade relations. And what, to assign a gendarme to each such country so that he looks into all cargo containers?

Perhaps for this reason, the head of the European Council, Charles Michel, believes that it is not worth chopping off the shoulder yet. But it is necessary to carry out “explanatory work” with such countries, to convince them of the need for sanctions against Russia.

– The 11th package will be agreed at the G7 meeting, there is still discussion within the EU countries, different points of view may appear, – says Nikita Maslennikov, a leading expert at the Center for Political Technologies. –

As for the transit of goods through Russia, Brussels is able to “cut off the oxygen”, simply stop the supply of goods. The damage will primarily be incurred by those countries to which they came through our territory.

Attempts to control our parallel imports are really difficult to evaluate. In this regard, the European Union, in fact, has only one support – the United States, as well as the banking system and financial markets of the respective countries. We have already seen this in Turkey and Kazakhstan. All this multiplies the number of conflicts in the modern world, multiplies uncertainties.

The consequences for Russia may be unpleasant, but in this case they can be seen as an additional incentive to develop their own production. After all, parallel imports are always finite.

– Will the European Union have enough strength to keep track of all third countries?

– This is a fundamentally new quality of the 11th package. Sanctions introduce control over law enforcement. They are not formally imposed on these countries. But they control how they comply with anti-Russian sanctions. That is, exclude various workarounds. Here the question arises: to what extent does the EU have enough forces and means for this? In any case, this multiplies the conflicts between the European Union and various states, which is fraught with unpredictable consequences. There will be more uncertainties in the economic world.