It is proposed to involve refugees in labor – Kommersant

Refugees, whose number in the world is estimated at 37 million people, with the liberalization of the legislation of host countries, could contribute to the growth of the global economy and fill the labor shortage caused by the aging of the population, analysts from the World Bank believe. In their opinion, such a strategy could be in demand primarily in countries with high and middle income levels, in which the proportion of older citizens is especially high.

Population aging will force developed countries to compete more actively for labor migrants, whose number in the world may grow more slowly than previously expected. Under these conditions, one of the options to compensate for the lack of labor resources may be more active integration into the refugee society, follows from the World Bank report “Migrants, Refugees and Society”.

It notes that since 1960 the share of migrants in the world population has remained relatively stable. However, population growth has been uneven across regions of the world, with global migration increasing at more than three times the rate of population growth in high-income countries and twice as slow in poorer countries.

According to the World Bank, in the next decade, global competition for labor will intensify. Primarily due to the fact that the population in countries with high and middle income is rapidly aging. In 2022, the share of the population over 65 in high-income countries reached an all-time high of 19% and will continue to rise. For example, 59 million people currently live in Italy, but by 2100 the population will be reduced by almost half – to 32 million, while the proportion of people over 65 will increase from 24% to 38%. An aging population creates an additional burden on state budgets, as it needs both social payments (pensions, benefits) and increased spending on healthcare.

Under these conditions, migrants, the WB notes, can make a great contribution to the growth of the economy of the host country, especially in the long term. Low-skilled newcomers perform types of work in which local residents are not interested. Highly skilled – increase labor productivity in industries.

Traditionally, migrant donor countries have been regions with low incomes and high birth rates. However, this flow may decrease in the coming years. In countries such as Bangladesh, India, China, Mauritius, Mexico, Thailand, Tunisia, the birth rate has fallen to near replacement levels or even lower, which reduces their ability to supply workers abroad.

In order to restore the amount of labor migration necessary for developed countries, the World Bank proposes to consider refugees as economic agents. There are 37 million of them in the world, this is one fifth of all migrants (187 million people). Experts note that the governments of most countries hosting refugees are ready to give them only limited social rights, while limiting access to the national labor market. By making the procedures for registering as unemployed, concluding labor contracts and recognizing educational documents more liberal for them, developed countries could get additional workers.

It is likely that the strategy proposed by the World Bank could be in demand in the EU countries, which have seen a sharp increase in the number of refugees over the past year due to the conflict in Ukraine. However, with high unemployment in the eurozone (around 6% in 2022) and modest economic growth prospects (IMF forecast of 0.8% in 2023), creating new jobs will require governments to invest heavily. The recommendations of the World Bank can also be applied in the Russian Federation, which, according to the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, received about 3 million refugees from Ukraine during the year. Some of them, probably, could compensate for the shortage of workers in certain specialties that is emerging in the labor market of the Russian Federation (see Kommersant of April 24).

Anastasia Manuylova