It is no longer profitable to live on a salary – Newspaper Kommersant No. 24 (7469) dated 02/09/2023

The decline in real household disposable income in 2022 turned out to be significantly lower than the official forecast. By the end of the year, they even grew against the backdrop and, apparently, largely as a result of lower inflation, an increase in income from entrepreneurship and shadow incomes.

In 2022, according to Rosstat, real disposable incomes of the population decreased by 1% against an increase of 3.2% in 2021, which turned out to be significantly lower than the forecast of the Ministry of Economy (2.2%).

In the structure of cash income over the year, the share of income from entrepreneurship increased noticeably (by 0.7 percentage points to 6.2%) (against the recovery of the services and catering sector) and a slight increase in the share of social payments and wages (see chart). Comparable to the increase in the share of income from entrepreneurship, the share of income from property decreased (to 5%). The change in the structure of income in favor of funds from entrepreneurial activity, according to Vice-Rector of the Higher School of Economics Lilia Ovcharova, is the effect of sanctions – as a result, imports of a number of goods by small and medium-sized entrepreneurs began to develop. The third most important item in the structure of household income in 2022 was (other) shadow income at the level of 10.9%, the same as a year ago.

“The main reasons for the decline in real disposable income in 2022 are lower wages and insufficient indexation of payments,” says Igor Polyakov from the CMASF.

In January-November 2022, real wages sank by 1.1%, primarily in the social sectors, healthcare, education and public administration. Lilia Ovcharova notes that the dynamics of real disposable income turned out to be better than expected, primarily due to an increase in the minimum wage, indexation of pensions and the introduction of additional payments for children. According to Rosstat, excluding a one-time payment in 2021, real pensions in 2022 decreased by 0.8%, and with it – by 5.8%.

The annual growth rate of real disposable income even went positive by the end of 2022, having increased by 0.9% in the fourth quarter, while in the previous three quarters the indicator was shrinking (seasonally adjusted to the average quarterly values ​​of 2019, however, according to Rosstat, real revenues have generally been flat since 2020). So far, there are no data to judge all sources of real income growth in the fourth quarter of 2022. In many respects, it was caused by a decrease in inflation and the subsequent weak growth in real wages (by 0.3% in November and 0.4% in October in annual terms and by 0.5% on average per month in October-November after the average monthly growth by 0.2% in the third quarter of 2022, seasonally adjusted, according to the CMASF). In the structure of income, compared to the fourth quarter of 2021, the share of salaries remained virtually unchanged (39.4% in the fourth quarter of 2022 against 39.5% a year ago), but a noticeable increase in the share of income from entrepreneurship (from 5. 1% to 5.8%) and shadow cash income (from 14% to 14.7%).

Citizens used their decreased income in 2022 in this way: 59.1% of them were spent on the purchase of goods (61.1% a year ago), 17.5% (17.8%) on payment for services, 15% on mandatory payments % (15.5%), to increase savings – 7.3% (4.3%), for purchases abroad – 1.1% (1.3%). According to the Ministry of Economy, in 2022, total consumer spending – the turnover of retail, catering and services – decreased by 4.1% in annual terms.

The main decrease was in the turnover of retail, primarily non-food products (minus 6.7%), the turnover of public catering increased by 4.7%, and the volume of paid services – by 3.2%.

According to the CMASF, after seasonally adjusted stabilization in the third quarter, the average monthly growth rate of consumer spending in the fourth quarter of 2022, due to a decline in demand for non-food products, again sank at the level of 0.4%. However, this happened against the backdrop of increased savings (especially cash), which resulted in increased spending on services and food in January 2023 (see “Kommersant” dated January 12).

The Ministry of Economy expects the growth of real disposable income of the population in 2023 at the level of 2%. The December consensus forecast of Interfax assumes a decline – by 1.4%.

Artem Chugunov, Anastasia Manuylova