It became known what kind of heat will be normal for Russia by 2040

Russian geographers assessed how global warming will affect Russians

Employees of the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences have calculated how global warming will affect Russians by the middle of the 21st century. The corresponding scientific article can be read in GeoJournal.

The main dangers of climate change include so-called heat waves, like those that occurred in Moscow and the rest of European Russia in 2010. During that period, 44 days with temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius were recorded. Heat and smog from numerous forest fires caused severe economic and environmental damage.

It is believed that the risks from such waves increase with large population concentrations in cities, as this leads to the emergence of so-called “heat islands”.

Scientists compared the temperature in Russia in 2015-2023 with forecasts provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the middle of the 21st century (2040-2059).

They compiled two tables. One reflects a widespread increase in the number of relatively very warm days, into most of the summer season. For example, if this summer in Crimea and the east of the country there are up to 60 very warm summer days, then by 2050 their number will reach 90. In a number of areas their number will increase to 123, that is, the summer season will become much more longer.

Another table shows the expansion of the zone of absolute high temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius to densely populated areas in the coastal zone of the Black and Caspian Seas, central Russia, the Southern Urals and Siberia. For example, if now the maximum temperature in Moscow does not exceed 30 degrees, then after 2040 it will join the list of regions where 35-degree heat will spread, and the same northern Caucasus, where last summer it reached 40, will become a region where Temperatures exceeding this mark will prevail.

For large cities in the Krasnodar Territory, Moscow, Tyumen and other regions, extreme climate will worsen the situation due to the accumulation of a large population in these regions; by the 2050s, migration flows to these regions will increase. In the republics of the Caucasus, the population is also expected to increase, but due to natural growth.

An increase in temperature records and an expansion of the summer season will directly affect people’s well-being and lead to droughts, which means that the above forecast should be taken into account when planning additional measures to support the population in the future.