It became known how much the dollar will weaken due to the actions of the Bank of Russia

The regulator will support the ruble with large-scale currency sales

In January, the Central Bank will increase foreign currency sales from 900 million to 16.7 billion rubles per day due to a shortfall in oil and gas revenues in December 2023. Analysts are confident that a 16-fold increase in the volume of transactions will be able to support the ruble exchange rate. The first results are already noticeable at the Moscow Exchange trading: the dollar on the last trading day of the first working week, January 12, fell to the area of ​​88.4 rubles, the euro is at 96.8 rubles, and the yuan on the site gives a little more than 12 rubles. Experts argued about how much the domestic currency would strengthen due to the actions of the Bank of Russia.

From January 15, the Ministry of Finance will also switch to sales of currency and gold within the framework of the budget rule. This decision was made due to the shortfall in oil and gas revenues in December 2023. Every day, Anton Siluanov’s department will sell gold and foreign currency in the amount of 4.1 billion rubles. The Central Bank will “mirror” these operations, as well as additionally sell currency for another 12.6 billion rubles per day. Accordingly, the total daily sales volume in January will be 16.7 billion rubles.

“This is a planned step to return to the implementation of the budget rule,” says Dmitry Babin, an expert on the stock market at BCS World of Investments. “This process was suspended last year as part of measures to stabilize the ruble exchange rate.” Now these operations should, as before, smooth out the influence of the raw material factor on the foreign exchange market. Their direct goal is to fill the National Welfare Fund (NWF) when conditions on the world raw materials market are favorable, and in the event of a noticeable and prolonged deterioration, to help fulfill budget items against the backdrop of a drawdown in oil and gas revenues, the analyst pointed out.

From February 1 to February 6, the Bank of Russia will also sell an additional 11.8 billion rubles per day, that is, total daily currency sales will amount to 15.9 billion rubles. For comparison: at the beginning of January, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation sold foreign currency for 900 million rubles. in a day. “The Bank of Russia will “mirror” the 2023 operations to purchase currency from the National Welfare Fund, when a lot of money was spent from the fund and it needed to be replenished,” explains BitRiver Communications Director, economist Andrei Loboda, explaining the actions of large financial departments. — Mirroring operations is aimed precisely at stabilizing the ruble. This is positive news for the ruble. It is also possible that these currency sales may also be of an election nature. In addition, in connection with the elections, expenses from the National Welfare Fund will probably increase, which will increase the demand for rubles.”

The actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the Ministry of Finance have already led to the strengthening of the ruble: over the week the dollar fell by 3.1% and this is not the limit. However, experts have differing opinions on how much the US currency will weaken. So, according to investment adviser Yulia Kuznetsova, the next important level is 86.4 rubles per dollar, if this is also overcome, then the market will then see 84 rubles per dollar. And, perhaps, if the volumes are significant and there are much fewer currency purchases, it is realistic to even expect 81 rubles per unit of American currency. “The ruble will not grow excessively; we do not expect it to strengthen below 83 rubles per dollar. But in fact, even this value may not exist if foreign currency sales by exporters manually, within the agreed time lag allotted for sales of proceeds, are separated from the operations of the Central Bank,” Dmitry Alexandrov, head of the analytical research department at IVA Partners, enters the discussion. .

The daily sales of 16.7 billion rubles by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on the domestic market in January will amount to 10.8% of the total volume in this instrument, which may have an impact on the movement of exchange rates towards the strengthening of the ruble, but it will not be large. According to the head of the analytical department for global markets at IC Fontvielle, Arthur Meinhard, the strengthening of the domestic currency will be moderate. By the end of January, the US dollar could fetch 86-87 rubles, the euro – 94-95 rubles, and the yuan – 11-9-12.1 rubles, the expert believes.

But there is another point of view. “It is unlikely that sales of the Central Bank’s currency will significantly affect the ruble exchange rate, since their volume is still much less than the average daily trading turnover of the most liquid yuan-ruble pair,” says Babin. “In the longer term, the negative factor that is causing the increase in foreign currency sales as part of the implementation of the budget rule may have an impact – a noticeable reduction in oil and gas revenues.” If it continues, it will increase pressure on the ruble. As a result, the dollar is able to return to a level above 90 rubles, the euro will be at 98.5 rubles, and the yuan will be at 12.5 rubles, the expert believes.