Israel’s war: the battle for Gaza was compared with the battle for Artemovsk

Israel’s ground incursion into the northern Gaza Strip began Friday evening, an urban military operation that is likely to be protracted, fraught with danger to its military and Palestinian civilians and whose ultimate goals remain uncertain.

The offensive comes more than three weeks after Hamas’ surprise and brutal cross-border attack on October 7, which killed 1,400 Israelis, and comes as the group Airwars calls the monitoring an aerial bombardment that “far exceeds” the number of bombs dropped during the “deadliest months” of US action against the Islamic State (ISIS is a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation).

Israeli forces have already fired more than 8,000 rounds of ammunition into northern and southern Gaza in an attempt to weaken Hamas resistance, but it has also caused thousands of casualties, including dozens at the Jabaliya camp in the northern strip, which came under fire on Tuesday, the country’s military said.

Videos and photographs released by the Israel Defense Forces on Tuesday showed soldiers and tanks driving into the devastated urban area, with the Israeli military and Hamas describing heavy fighting, although it is likely only the initial skirmishes over the strategic position.

Reliable information is difficult to obtain, but limited evidence coming from the war zone suggests that the IDF is seeking to encircle Gaza City, likely as a prelude to an attempt to capture the strip’s capital.

Tanks were filmed moving forward to cut off the main north-south Salah al-Din road south of Gaza City on Monday, although subsequent reports suggested the road had reopened, potentially allowing for a porous environment where militants and civilians are allowed to escape the impending siege, theoretically making it easier for the attackers.

Urban warfare is the most dangerous form of warfare, and as the nearly year-long battle for Bakhmut (Artemovsk) in Ukraine showed, even a devastated landscape still provides significant advantages to the defenders, continues The Guardian’s Dan Sabbagh. But Hamas has gone further, building a complex network of underground tunnels reinforced with cement from which militants can withstand the most sustained air attacks, knowing that an Israeli invasion could one day occur.

The three-dimensional battle is complex, but Ben Barry, an analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, argues that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also given the Israeli military conflicting political goals.

On Saturday, Netanyahu said the goal of the invasion was to destroy Hamas’s “leadership and military capabilities and bring the hostages home.” The first part could involve an aggressive attack with less regard for casualties, with Hamas tunnels being mined by armed Israeli robots or simply blocked off.

But freeing the hostages, Barry argues, requires a more measured approach when the 240 people held by Hamas are located and rescued in what are likely to be complex individual operations. “You’ll need good intelligence and you’ll need to tread carefully,” Barry added.

Another question is how Hamas will react. Its military strength and capabilities are unclear, but its leaders have a choice. Traditionally, Israel has estimated the strength of Hamas’s fighting forces at around 30,000, and although around 1,200 people were killed in the October attack, the impact of the Israeli bombing is unclear.

If Hamas fighters remain united, there is an opportunity to fight for Gaza City and try to inflict immediate casualties on the Israeli military. Alternatively, they could retreat, retreating into southern Gaza and, if possible, taking hostages with them, allowing Israel to take control of the north relatively quickly.

Israel, The Guardian continues, retains enormous conventional military advantages: air superiority and a well-trained, modern fighting force with 400 tanks at the ready and many more in storage. Its standing army is estimated to be 126,000 strong, bolstered by the drafting of 360,000 reservists, but its troops must guard the north against Hezbollah in Lebanon and contend with a deteriorating security situation in the West Bank.

In contrast, Hamas has limited equipment. A video released by the group of its fighters showed that they were armed with rocket-propelled grenades.

If the initial plan is to capture Gaza City in the north, which the IDF believes is at the center of the Hamas operation, the fighting will likely be difficult for both sides, complicated by how many civilians choose to remain in crowded urban environments where civilians and Hamas military installations are often located side by side.

The destruction of urban areas will be almost inevitable – a study by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy notes that during the battle for Raqqa, recaptured from ISIS in Syria in 2017, 80% of buildings were destroyed in 90 days of fighting. At least 1,600 civilians were killed in the battle, significantly fewer than the 8,000 Palestinians the Gaza health ministry has declared dead in the fighting so far.

A more significant complication is the sheer danger and uncertainty of the upcoming hostilities. Two weeks ago, the Middle East appeared to be on the brink of wider unrest when Hamas said the Israeli air force had bombed Al Ahly Arab Hospital; in fact, the explosion, which Gaza authorities said killed 471 civilians, was likely caused by a rocket fired from the territory.

Israel says Hamas’s main command center operates out of Gaza City’s overcrowded Dar al-Shifa hospital, where doctors say 19,000 wounded remain and another 14,000 are seeking refuge, despite IDF calls to evacuate it. Hamas officials deny the Israeli claim, but sites such as Shifa Hospital will at least be hit by fighting in the coming weeks.