INSEE revises down its growth forecasts for the second half of the year

INSEE on Wednesday revised downwards its growth forecast for the second half of 2022, in a context of strong constraints on production, linked to the rapid rise in energy costs. In its latest economic report, the National Institute of Statistics expects growth of 0.2% in the third quarter, then 0.0% for the last three months of the year, against +0.3% expected. for each period during the review carried out in June. However, thanks to a much better second quarter (0.5% growth) than previously estimated, reflected by companies’ financial results, INSEE’s growth forecast for 2022 as a whole has been revised slightly. up, to +2.6%, against +2.3% previously.

The institute also revised down its inflation forecast to 5.3% for 2022, against a forecast of 5.5% at its last point in June, taking into account the reinforcement of the discount at the pump for the fuels decided during the summer. “Catch-up effects, notably in tourism, supported growth in the second quarter“Explained Julien Pouget, head of the Institute’s business cycle department, during a press briefing. Services activities should continue to support growth in the third quarter, but “catch-up effects would diminish“Advancing towards the end of the year, provides INSEE. And manufacturing output is expected to contract in the third quarter, under the effect of severe constraints on supply and high inventories of finished products.

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For the last part of the year, there are many uncertainties. “Some companies are starting to have occasional production problemsobserves Julien Pouget. Several of them have already announced business interruptions linked to the rise in energy prices, such as the famous Duralex glassworks, which will put its furnace on standby for at least four months from November and place all of its employees on partial unemployment. The end of the year will also be marked by the monetary tightening continued by the central banks and a sharp rise in interest rates, in particular in the United States, which could weigh on growth, reminds INSEE.