In the name of technological sovereignty – Kommersant

“Kommersant” learned the details of the work of a new mechanism for supporting priority projects – lending to projects within the framework of a technological taxonomy, which involves the issuance of loans by commercial banks at more affordable rates by lowering risk ratios for projects of interest to the state. It is expected that the issuance of the first such loans will begin in the second half of the year. By 2030, lending in the amount of 15–20 trillion rubles is projected, which should double the share of the manufacturing industry in the corporate loan portfolio from the current 12–15% during this time. The taxonomy, which is primarily focused on market instruments, will become a support mechanism that will provide priority projects with access to state incentives.

The use of the taxonomy of technological sovereignty projects can significantly increase the volume of bank financing of the manufacturing industry – as VEB.RF First Deputy Chairman Alexei Miroshnichenko told Kommersant, it is expected that due to it the share of projects in the corporate loan portfolio from the current 12-15% will double by 2030 . Taxonomy (a system for evaluating projects in terms of importance for the economy), we recall, divides them into two categories: aimed at achieving technical sovereignty (by creating new capacities and technologies in industries with a degree of localization of less than 50%) and at structural adaptation of the economy through reorientation of exports RF (see “Kommersant” dated April 18). Under these projects, the regulation of the Central Bank is being prepared – reducing the risk ratios for their lending, which will allow banks to reduce rates.

As Kommersant was told in the Ministry of Economy, it is possible to expect the issuance of loans within the framework of the taxonomy in the second half of the year – after the Central Bank’s stimulating norms come into force. According to VEB.RF estimates, by 2030 such loans are expected to be issued for 15–20 trillion rubles, due to a reduction in the rate by 0.5–1 percentage points compared to the market rate. De facto, we are talking about a market support mechanism – according to Alexei Miroshnichenko, the tool will allow “systemically shifting the focus” of lending, synchronizing it with industrial policy.

The peculiarity of the mechanism, explains Alexey Miroshnichenko, is that “the state does not allocate funds for this and does not refuse, as, for example, in the case of tax benefits, from revenues.” Decisions are made by the bank, which evaluates the project and its risks – in case of doubt, it can apply to an expert organization, and in case of conflicting conclusions, an interdepartmental commission may already be involved. VEB expects that regulatory easing will increase the availability of market loans for investors and their volume. Syndicated loans for such projects are also possible – including, Mr. Miroshnichenko adds, within the framework of the project financing factory with the participation of VEB (now about 10% of the projects that are considered within the framework of the factory correspond to the taxonomy).

The Ministry of Economy agrees that the mechanism “is really a market one, but takes into account the possibility of state support – the bank determines the terms of lending on its own, taking into account both capital savings and possible additional incentives from the government, if any, are expected during the implementation of the project.” That is, the taxonomy itself becomes the core mechanism for supporting the projects needed by the state for technical sovereignty, on which stimulation instruments of various formats can be strung – both market (when banks are connected to the process) and state (investment tax deductions, support within the framework of a cluster investment platform).

Projects that have received more favorable loans from banks with reference to the taxonomy will be included in the VEB register. On its basis, the Central Bank will verify the validity of the use of regulatory easing by banks. Compared to receiving budgetary funds, says Alexei Miroshnichenko, the price of a “mistake” is low: if it turns out that the project does not comply with the taxonomy or no longer complies with it, the bank will switch to the usual risk standard – then for it financing of this project will be 0.5– 1 p.p. less profitable – or, if it is provided for by the contract, it will raise the rate “to normal”. In case of non-fulfillment of obligations under state subsidies, we recall that the investor is also obliged to reimburse the benefits to the budget. It is expected that this circumstance will also affect the willingness of investors to take risks.

VEB indicates its readiness to adjust the taxonomy based on the results of the first edition and, in response to a market request, add the missing criteria for launching production facilities that are not available in Russia. A scenario in which, on the contrary, it will be necessary to exclude taxa from the list is also being considered – in the event that new production facilities appear in Russia. However, according to Mr. Miroshnichenko, such a revision will be required in about five years, when investors will withdraw their products and be able to master the market.

Evgenia Kryuchkova, Diana Galieva