In March 2024, the federal budget returned to surplus

In March, the federal budget returned to surplus after three months of deficits. However, for now, based on the results of the entire first quarter, the accumulated gap between revenues and expenses remains – at a comfortable amount for the government of 0.3% of GDP. In March, both oil and gas and non-oil and gas budget revenues increased noticeably. At the same time, expenses, due to the end of the “advance season” in March, decreased significantly compared to February.

Based on the results of the first quarter, the budget picture, as follows from those published on Monday Ministry of Finance data, compared to the results of two months of the year has changed noticeably. In January-February, the advanced conclusion of contracts and advances of expenses led to an increase in the federal budget deficit almost to its planned value for the year – 1.474 trillion rubles, or 0.8% of GDP (see “Kommersant” dated March 11). In March, a significant surplus was recorded – 867 billion rubles, which reduced the deficit accumulated in the first quarter by more than half, to 607 billion rubles, or 0.3% of GDP.

The March surplus (the last time a monthly positive budget balance was recorded was in November 2023) was facilitated by both a noticeable increase in revenues relative to February and a decrease in expenses.

If in January budget revenues amounted to 2.4 trillion rubles, in February – 2.6 trillion, then in March they increased to 3.7 trillion rubles.

The annual comparison of income (the first quarter of 2024 to the first quarter of 2023) due to the low base effect looks even more impressive – plus 53.5%, up to 8.719 trillion rubles. Both components of the income side have noticeably increased. Non-oil and gas revenues from January to March amounted to 5.791 trillion rubles. (plus 43.2% compared to the same period last year). The Ministry of Finance traditionally does not provide a breakdown of taxes for the last two years, reporting only the collections of the main Russian tax in terms of volume, VAT (more than half of all non-oil and gas revenues) – this is 3.356 trillion rubles. (we are talking about all tax revenues – “domestic” and “imported”). The increase in VAT compared to the same period last year is 24.6%.

Oil and gas revenues in the first three months of the year increased by 79.1% compared to last January-March, to 2.928 trillion rubles.

Such revenues showed a significant increase in March – up almost 40% compared to February. The reason for this, given the virtually stable price of oil (taxes were calculated based on the February price of Urals – $68.3 per barrel), was a calendar factor: revenues from the additional income tax – AIT, which oil workers pay four times a year (see “Kommersant” dated April 4).

The volume of federal budget expenditures at the end of the first quarter amounted to 9.326 trillion rubles, which is 20.1% higher than the level of the comparable period in 2023. In March, the increase in expenses due to the end of the “advance season” stopped: if in February expenses amounted to 4 trillion, then in March it was noticeably less – 2.8 trillion rubles.

Vadim Visloguzov