In January-August 2023, the current balance of payments is estimated at $25.6 billion

The Bank of Russia has published estimates of the state of the current account of the balance of payments. In January-August 2023, it was estimated at $25.6 billion – due to the sharply changed terms of trade for Russia, the figure decreased over the year by more than seven times. The value of exports over the same period decreased by 31.8%, and imports increased by 17%, which reduced the foreign trade surplus by 3.2 times – to $72.6 billion. Monthly estimates, however, vary greatly – for example, in August there was a surplus the current account was estimated at $2.8 billion against a deficit of $0.3 billion in July (see chart), and at the beginning of August the Central Bank saw a surplus of $1.8 billion in July.

In addition to the general deterioration in terms of trade, the summer surge in demand for imported tourism services and the decline in the cost of their exports, at a qualitative level over the year, the regulator records a noticeable decrease in dividends accrued by Russian companies in favor of non-residents and purchases of foreign assets. In the base scenario of its July forecast, the Central Bank sees the current account for 2023 as positive – $26 billion: a surplus in foreign trade in goods – $97 billion ($117 billion – the previous April estimate), a deficit in trade in services – $30 billion ($23 billion). The latest consensus forecast of Russian analysts, as well as the FocusEconomics forecast, based mainly on surveys of foreign economists, are more conservative in their estimates and assume stable high or growing imports against the backdrop of declining exports (see Kommersant on September 7). Thus, the Russian consensus assumes a decrease in the foreign trade surplus from $109 billion (according to the previous estimate – $115 billion) in 2023 and $112 billion in 2024 to $90 billion in 2026.

Meanwhile, yesterday, in a conversation with Izvestia at the WEF, Deputy Head of the Ministry of Economy Ilya Torosov spoke about the department’s plan to “return the currency to the normal corridor” (70–80 rubles/$). Firstly, Mr. Torosov referred to import substitution. “We began to produce many of the things we previously purchased. This allows you to make fewer purchases in dollars, the pressure on the ruble decreases,” he believes (analysts are convinced that everything is much more complicated, see Kommersant on June 13). However, “an effort must be made to ensure that the supply of dollars on the market is greater. Maybe part of the export proceeds will be returned more quickly,” the deputy minister added, noting that the department understands the benefits of a weak exchange rate for exporters.

Artem Chugunov