Gref does not expect a key rate increase at the meeting in September

Too little time has passed for the next increase in the key rate to assess the consequences of the regulatory measures already introduced. This was stated by the Chairman of the Board of Sberbank German Gref during a press conference at the Eastern Economic Forum (WEF).

“I don’t expect a promotion [ключевой ставки], because too little time has passed since the previous increase. It is still difficult to assess the consequences of the regulatory measures that were introduced,” he said.

According to Gref, the key rate will be reduced within about six months. He added that the Bank of Russia “has learned to work with this kind of inflationary surges,” so the 12% per annum rate “will not last long.” The head of Sber noted that the increase in the key rate of the Central Bank will have a slight impact on the bank’s financial results, while at the same time there is already a “reduction in demand for financial resources.”

Against the background of the weakening of the ruble, the Central Bank decided on August 15 to increase the key rate by 3.5 percentage points to 12%. The regulator explained this decision by increased inflationary pressure and inflationary expectations, which are pressured by the dynamics of the exchange rate. Central Bank didn’t rule it out further rate growth in the event of increased pro-inflationary risks – the scheduled meeting will be held on September 15.

Vedomosti earlier wrotethat analysts could not reach a consensus on the Central Bank’s rate decision, which will take place in mid-September. 10 respondents out of 19 consider the base scenario to be maintaining the key rate at the current level of 12%, despite the recent statement by the Central Bank about the possibility of increasing it. Other experts believe that the rate will still be increased.