In America, Russia’s losses from the oil ceiling were calculated: the expert found an inaccuracy

Expert Yushkov pointed out a mistake made by the US Treasury

During the period from January to May, Russia’s oil revenues fell by 50%, and the discount on this raw material reaches 25%. So the sanctions measures against Moscow turned out to be quite effective, the price ceiling works, said US Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo. However, a closer look reveals a somewhat different picture. In fact, oil and gas revenues to the Russian budget have halved, and not purely oil revenues.

Of course, there are problems from sanctions against the domestic oil industry, and they are recognized in the Russian government. For example, these include the high cost of freight, which, according to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, “has grown quite strongly due to the risks faced by carriers.” This is also the reason for significant discounts on Russian oil purchased, in particular, by China, India and Pakistan. However, Russian presidential aide Maxim Oreshkin said at SPIEF 2023 that the discount on raw materials for friendly countries is actually less than is commonly believed. “But you don’t have to tell anyone about this. Let everyone think that everything is bad,” the official mocked.

According to the estimates of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, in January-May 2023, the budget received revenues of 9.8 trillion rubles, 19% less than in the same period last year. Oil and gas revenues decreased by 50% year-on-year to 2.8 trillion, while non-oil and gas revenues grew by 9% to 6.9 trillion rubles.

“It seems that the Americans have decided to interpret the data of the RF Ministry of Finance in accordance with their own guidelines, without taking into account fundamental differences,” says Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. – Of course, in the case of a 50% drop, we are talking not about oil, but about oil and gas revenues. We have drastically reduced the volume of natural gas exports: in 2021, Russia supplied Europe with 160 billion cubic meters, and in this, based on the daily dynamics, it can count on the strength of 20-25 billion. to the EU countries, and on September 3, Gazprom completely stopped them. In May 2023, Ukraine blocked one of the two pipeline routes through its territory, and the volume of transit pumping to Europe fell by 60%. It is physically impossible to transfer all this dropped gas to other markets, so we had to cut production. As a result, the budget began to receive less severance tax from the gas industry.”

All these losses have nothing to do with the oil ceiling and do not prove its effectiveness in any way. As for oil, in terms of volume, Russia sells about the same amount as last year. The price has indeed declined, Yushkov admits: in January-April, it averaged $51.05 per barrel of Urals, and $84.68 in the same period of 2022. After the United States imposed an embargo on Russian oil in April last year, and the Europeans began to buy it with greater caution, we had to gradually adjust to other markets and introduce discounts for new partners. In May of this year, the North Sea Brent traded at around $74 per barrel (in April – 84.89), respectively, Russian Urals will cost about $55-58 in the foreseeable future (in April it was $58.63).

“There is one important nuance regarding the average settlement price for Urals,” notes Yushkov. – The fact is that the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation is forced to use the data provided to it by Argus, an international independent agency. And sometimes these figures do not quite adequately reflect the real market situation.”