In 2022, personnel changes within the regions faded into the background

In 2022, instead of the traditional two “governor falls”, there was only one: in the fall, rotation among the heads of regions was abandoned. At that time, the Russian leadership had more significant concerns about the rotation in the leadership of the “old” regions – the events around the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, which added to the list of subjects of the Federation, now there are 89 of them. to go to the polls, it has not happened now, and public policy in the regions has not been frozen: it has undergone a transformation.

On May 10, the heads of five Russian regions – Sergey Zhvachkin (Tomsk region), Igor Vasiliev (Kirov region), Valery Radaev (Saratov region), Alexander Evstifeev (Mari El Republic) and Nikolai Lyubimov (Ryazan region) on the same day announced their decision to leave their post in connection with the end of the term of office in the fall of 2022. On the same day, President Vladimir Putin appointed five interim. Usually the rotation chain was stretched for several days.

If in the spring it was customary to change governors immediately before the start of the campaign, so that they were elected on their “honeymoon” of government, then those appointed in the fall were given interim for almost a year: in the first case, the novelty factor helped the appointees, in the second – getting used to a familiar face.

“Five replacements is a kind of anti-record, there were fewer only in 2006,” says political scientist Alexander Kynev. – But I must say that there were no federal replacements, ministers either [исключением стала замена руководителя «Роскосмоса» с соответствующими перестановками в правительстве]”. That is, there have been no serious personnel changes since 2020: they have been put on pause.

Such a freeze, which affected all levels of government, is new for the system. Some resignations were not refused even during the years of the pandemic: in 2020 and 2021. they also took place in spring and autumn, plus two governors left their posts in connection with criminal cases.

At the same time, against the background of the special operation, there was a behind-the-scenes discussion on the abolition of gubernatorial elections, the first publicly raised this topic was the chairman of the “Fair Russia” Sergei Mironov. “Let’s go when they [солдаты] will return with a victory, we will hold elections!” he suggested.

“Although for the Russians it was already the third year of extreme events and, it would seem, even the cancellation of the elections would not become noticeable, it is still important to remain in the logic that everything is going according to plan. In the event of turbulence, the usual electoral procedures calm the society,” says Mikhail Vinogradov, head of the Petersburg Politics Foundation.

Regionalist political scientist Vitaly Ivanov believes that the government did not see any serious prerequisites for canceling the elections: there was no drop in ratings. “Elections held [в том числе 2022 г.] demonstrate stability. And in order to support it, it is important to demonstrate it,” says Ivanov.

“If you refuse this, the system of manifestation of discontent will disappear: now if people are dissatisfied with something, then they blame first the party, then the governor, then the government, and only then the highest power,” notes political scientist Ilya Grashchenkov.

The announcement of mobilization and the introduction of special regimes in the regions of the Russian Federation set unexpected and rather specific tasks for the heads of regions: it became necessary for the governors to organize work as quickly as possible, which had never been experienced.

On October 19, Putin introduced martial law in the new regions and established different levels of response in the rest of the subjects. “In the current situation, I consider it necessary to give additional powers to the leaders of all Russian regions,” the president said at a meeting of the Security Council. According to the decree, the heads of the subjects were obliged to ensure the security, protection and anti-terrorist protection of critical facilities, increase the stability of the economy, etc.

“In a crisis, the logic works, according to which it is better to have a problematic, but experienced [губернатор] better than any personnel experiments. For example, mobilization is not exactly a governor’s task, but there are no more local managers,” Kynev sums up. In addition, it was the regions that began to control the implementation of the federal task: both in terms of mobilizing only those people who really should be called up, and in terms of material support for military personnel and their families. The very fact of moving the governor to the forefront changed the configuration of forces: on the ground, federal and regional spheres of responsibility have always been clearly divided, Kynev believes.

Even during the pandemic, the federal center delegated responsibility for making a number of decisions (mask mode, QR codes, etc.) to the regions. Moscow became the flagship in taking measures on the part of the subjects of the Federation: it was after the introduction of certain measures in the capital that they spread throughout the country. “The Donbass consensus demonstrated that the decisions of the authorities were not discussed, but it was necessary to demonstrate varying degrees of support. This is the limit of what is permitted [регионам] blurred as never before,” states Vinogradov.

Experts do not expect the cancellation of elections in 2023, regardless of how the situation at the front develops.

“Conformists support the authorities “for stability”. Deprive them of it – they will begin to frustrate. They do not so much need elections as a demonstration of the stability of processes. Cancellation of elections is a departure from normality. The main way to save the system, despite all the difficulties, is to show that life goes on,” says Kynev. “A new normal has almost been established. People are getting used to the situation formed by the NWO,” Ivanov notes. Experts also have no doubts about the fact that in the spring there will definitely be a “governor’s fall” and that the elections themselves will take place.

In addition, the 2023 election season will see many important and notable campaigns, including the election of the mayor of Moscow. At the same time, there are no obvious favorites in a number of regions. Among such regions, Vinogradov names Khakassia, the Krasnoyarsk Territory, Yakutia and the Orel Region. There are also regions where talks about resignation are already underway, he notes: the Orenburg region, Komi, Voronezh, Magadan regions, Chukotka.

In 2022, there was practically no time to actively resolve intra-elite conflicts – an example of Moscow’s complete indifference was the story of the creator of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and the governor of St. Petersburg, Alexander Beglov, says Grashchenkov.

Among other things, the 2023 elections are the last before the 2024 presidential elections. Regional political technologists will find themselves in a difficult situation: for the first time they are given a task comparable to the presidential elections, because the turnout should be high, and conflicts should be at least, two representatives of this industry said.