I almost didn’t fall because I did push-ups – Newspaper Kommersant No. 158 (7359) of 08/30/2022
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The government, preparing for an inventory of anti-crisis measures and expenditures, presented on Monday new, noticeably more optimistic assessments of the economic situation in the Russian Federation. According to the expectations of First Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov, the decline in GDP this year may be only a little more than 2%, inflation – 12-13%, and the fall in investment will not exceed 2%. To obtain such results, however, additional anti-crisis support measures will be required – among the priorities is assistance to non-commodity non-energy exports, the volume of which is now expected to fall by 17%.
The White House, as followed from Monday’s meeting of the commission on improving the resilience of the economy in the face of sanctions, is preparing for an inventory of anti-crisis measures. According to Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, the government should complete targeted and already effective measures, and extend individual measures in order to “continue work within the framework of long-term strategic planning.”
To set priorities, First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov asked the head of government to instruct him to conduct an inventory of all expenses for the “anti-crisis” in the budget for 2023-2025 by mid-October. In addition, he presented a snapshot of the economic situation, in fact, a new version of the macro forecast. According to Mr. Belousov’s estimates, the decline in GDP by the end of the year may be slightly more than 2%, by the end of 2023 – 0.6-0.8%. This is significantly more optimistic than the latest estimates from the macroeconomic forecast of the Ministry of Economy (see “Kommersant” dated August 17). The agency, we recall, expects a reduction in GDP by 4.2% this year, by 2.7% in 2023.
However, as Andrei Belousov noted, “we need to fight” to achieve such indicators – the stake is on investments, the support of which should become the center of the anti-crisis program.
The authorities are considering, in particular, agreements on the protection and promotion of capital investments as mechanisms for increasing them (36 projects are being implemented, another 25 projects with a total investment of 870 billion rubles should be launched by the end of the year), as well as the launch of a regional investment standard (see “Kommersant” dated August 15).
If everything works out, then, according to Andrey Belousov, investments in 2022-2023 will be reduced by only 2% and 1%, respectively (in the macro forecast, the fall figures are much worse – by 10.8% and 4.9%). Such optimism, judging by the words of the official, is inspired by the results of the second quarter – earlier it was expected that the fall in investments would be up to 20%, now, according to preliminary estimates, the decline will either not be recorded, or will be “very small”.
Nevertheless, the situation is called “complex and ambiguous” – the epicenter of the decline in investment will be in the fourth quarter and may affect the beginning of 2023.
Andrei Belousov on Monday asked Mikhail Mishustin to instruct the Ministry of Economy and the Ministry of Finance to work out additional measures to stimulate investment, the prime minister did not object.
Imports this year, according to the August 29 estimate, fell by a third compared to last year. However, the dynamics of this is not uniform: critical imports decreased by 11-12%, imports of investment goods – by 17-20%. Consumer imports, Andrey Belousov believes, “practically recovered” (minus 3-5%), largely due to the permission of parallel imports.
The situation with exports is rated as “the most problematic” – for the energy sector, the White House expects the peak of sanctions in the fall, so they are closely monitoring the development of the situation.
Non-commodity non-energy exports, which Andrey Belousov singled out as a priority of the anti-crisis program along with investments, decreased by more than 13%. Earlier, we note that the Russian Export Center announced “positive dynamics” (see “Kommersant” dated August 2) this year. According to the results of the whole year, a decline of 17% is expected, primarily due to the loss of European markets.
The fall in consumption, according to Andrey Belousov, will be 4.2% in 2022, and in 2023 it is expected to grow by 2.5–3%. Inflation in the White House is predicted at the level of 12-13% for the year (the Ministry of Economy expected 13.4% in the August forecast). Industrial production has so far declined by an average of 4.5% (compared to February) – the auto industry, where the decline is estimated at 50%, and the chemical industry remain at risk. In these sectors, in the second half of the year, the White House sees risks of dismissal or transfer to intermediate forms of employment (part-time employment, forced leave, wage cuts) for 200-300 thousand people.
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