HSE demographers: Russia may need to attract up to 1.1 million migrants annually to maintain population

To maintain a population of 146 million people, Russia will need to attract between 390,000 and 1.1 million migrants every year until 2100. This was reported by experts of the Institute of Demography. A.G. Vishnevsky National Research University Higher School of Economics Valery Yumaguzin and Maria Vinnik. Their article for the journal of the New Economic Association cites RBC.

Experts have prepared three demographic forecast scenarios for Russia. They supplemented it with calculations of how many migrants Russia needs to attract annually between 2021 and 2100 to maintain a population of 146 million people.

According to the highest, most optimistic scenario, the average birth rate per woman will be up to 2.5 children, by 2100 life expectancy for women will increase to 90.5 years, for men – 85.7 years, the migration increase will be up to 430 thousand people every year. In this case, compensatory migration will be necessary until 2036its average value over the next 80 years will be negative.

According to average scenario, the average birth rate will be up to 1.85 children per woman by 2100, life expectancy for women – 86.7 years, men – 80.3 years, the annual migration increase – 250 thousand people. In this case, to maintain the population compensatory migration should average 390 thousand people per yearin the first years of the forecast period – about 900 thousand people.

According to low scenario, by 2023 the birth rate will decrease to 1.4 children per woman and will remain at this level until 2100, life expectancy for women is 83.6 years, for men – 74.9 years, migration gain – on average at least 100 thousand people with a reduction to 60 thousand people by the end of the forecast period. In this case, in order to preserve the population will need to attract up to 1.1 million migrants per year.

Experts note that in the coming years, due to “the impossibility of achieving such high values ​​of compensatory migration,” it can be concluded that the population in Russia will decline even under the most favorable scenarios for fertility and mortality.

In 2022, the average life expectancy in Russia was 72.76 years, which is 2.7 years more than in 2021. According to Rosstat, the average for women was 77.8 years, for men – 67.6 years. The birth rate decreased from 1.5 to 1.42 births per woman at the end of the year. The natural decline in the population amounted to 594.6 thousand people. The migration inflow decreased to 61.9 thousand people against 430 thousand people in 2021. According to HSE estimates, at the end of the year, the migration increase compensated for the natural population decline by only 10.4%.

Olesya Pavlenko