Hezbollah leader Nasrallah’s speech ended in disarray

Hezbollah has chosen to play the role of applauding spectator in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, where the applause is like rockets periodically launched towards Israel from Lebanese territory. This is how political scientist Sergei Markov assessed the speech of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. It was expected that today the leader of the Lebanese party would declare war on Israel and side with Hamas. But it didn’t happen. It was the fault of the Americans, as Nasrallah himself said.

By 16:00 the whole world froze in anticipation. Everyone was waiting for the speech of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Part of the planet sympathetic to the Palestinians hoped that Lebanon, represented by a paramilitary Islamic party, would go to war with Israel.

In anticipation of the Hezbollah leader’s speech, possible scenarios for further events began to appear in the Arab press. Three scenarios appeared in the Egyptian publication Veto. The first is the toughest with a declaration of war on Israel. The second option is to support Hamas forces by partially transferring Hezbollah forces for special operations against Tel Aviv. Finally, the third option is tactical confrontation.

Hassan Nasrallah took the fourth path. He decided not to do anything at all, says political scientist Sergei Markov.

– No action. Everyone expected him to declare war on Israel, but he did not declare anything,” Markov commented on the speech of the leader of the Lebanese party.

The Hezbollah leader said that the operation “deluge of Al-Aqsa”, which was launched on October 7 by Palestinian Hamas, is “the cause of the Palestinians.” And in general, no one outside the Gaza Strip knew anything about the operation, because it was allegedly prepared in an atmosphere of the strictest secrecy.

According to Nasrallah, Hezbollah “entered hostilities on October 8.”

Political scientist Sergei Markov believes that this is not true.

– They didn’t join. They rather imitate a war against Israel. There is a reason for this. It is believed that Hezbollah is three times stronger than Hamas in terms of resources. Hezbollah has the experience of two victories over Israel. The first was in the 90s, the second in 2006. These victories over Israel were achieved within the framework of one strategy. Israel sent troops into Lebanon, where the Arab population lives, Hezbollah began a guerrilla war, relying on a friendly population, and inflicted an unacceptable defeat on Israel.

Now Hezbollah does not have such a strategy; Israel does not invade Lebanese territory,” the expert explained.

Markov noted that Hezbollah itself is afraid to enter Israeli territory. In this case, the Lebanese military will not have the opportunity to wage a guerrilla war. There will also be no reliance on the local population.

– Nasrallah did the same thing as Erdogan before him. A big, beautiful speech, a lot of attacks on Israel and the United States, but no action,” emphasized Sergei Markov.

By the way, Nasrallah not only verbally attacked Washington, but also directly accused it of civilian casualties in the Gaza Strip. And at the same time, he explained his own passivity towards the Palestinians with American policy: “America sent us a signal that it will bomb Iran if we continue,” said the Hezbollah leader.

Actually, Lebanon really received enough signals. Firstly, Israel, which receives maximum support from the United States, currently has complete air dominance in the combat area. Secondly, the Americans pulled their aircraft carriers closer to the epicenter of the conflict.

This situation suggests that Israel’s neighbors, who verbally sympathize with the Palestinians, will in fact simply wait, Markov believes.

At the same time, Hassan Nasrallah stated the need to achieve victory for Gaza and Hamas, calling this a result “in the interests of all neighboring countries.” That is, in fact, neighboring Arab countries are planning to fight with Israel in completely American traditions – to the last, in this case, Palestinian.

“Israel’s opponents will watch its actions in the Gaza Strip against Hamas and hope that it will break its neck and be defeated in the guerrilla war against Hamas,” predicts Sergei Markov.

The expert also noted that Lebanon and other Arab countries have chosen to be spectators in the conflict.

– Nasrallah welcomed the fact that the Iranians and Yemenis are firing missiles at Israel, and Lebanon itself is also firing. But the Palestinians did not notice what they supposedly started on October 8. They chose the position of applauding spectators, where the applause is the very rockets,” the analyst concluded.