Germany will lose up to €260 billion by 2030 due to events in Ukraine
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Germany’s losses due to the events in Ukraine and the associated increase in energy prices will reach €260 billion by 2030. This calculations British Institute for Employment Research (IES). His analysts estimate the losses for Germany’s GDP in these years as follows: next year alone, due to these factors, it will be 1.7% lower than it would have been in a different development of events.
According to IES estimates, the employment rate in Germany in 2023 will be 240,000 jobs lower than it could be, and this level will remain until 2026. After that, employment will begin to grow, and the negative effects will soften, and by 2030 the number of jobs will grow by 60,000. According to the authors of the study, the hospitality industry, which has already had a large negative impact from the pandemic, will be hardest hit. Energy-intensive sectors such as the chemical industry and metallurgy will be seriously affected.
If energy prices, already up 160%, doubled again, the losses would be even more significant. In this case, according to IES analysts, Germany’s GDP in 2023 will be 4% lower than it would be without these factors, and the number of employees in three years will be 660,000 people lower.
What happens after the entry of Russian troops into Ukraine, read in material “b”.
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