Germany decided to double military aid to Ukraine in 2024

The ruling coalition in Germany agreed on a decision to double the volume of aid to Ukraine in 2024 to 8 billion euros, Bloomberg reported on November 12, citing sources. The decision should soon be approved by the budget committee of the German parliament, which will increase Germany’s total defense spending to 2.1% of its GDP (2% is the lower desirable limit set at the NATO summit in Vilnius; for Germany this amount is approximately 85 billion euros).

On November 11, Bild also reported on the decision made by the German government. According to the German newspaper, initially the German Ministry of Finance included in the budget for 2024 only 4 billion euros for military assistance to Ukraine, which were reserved for previously promised projects. The increase in aid to Ukraine came after a request from Defense Minister Boris Pistorius to allocate an additional 5 billion euros for these purposes.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also announced on November 10 that Berlin would increase its defense spending to 2% of GDP in 2024 for the first time in three decades, without focusing on increasing assistance to Ukraine. “We need a military that can defend our country, that has the capabilities, resources and personnel to protect the security of the alliance. [НАТО] where required,” he said. He also recalled the special fund of 100 billion euros created by the Bundestag at the end of February 2022 for the modernization of the Bundeswehr. These funds were planned to be spent mainly on the purchase of weapons and other materiel.

Germany is the largest donor of military aid to Ukraine among European countries, and in the world it is second only to the United States. According to the Kiel Institute of World Economy, from January 2022 to July 2023, the volume of military assistance to Kiev from Berlin reached 17 billion euros, which includes supplies of Leopard 2 tanks, Marder infantry fighting vehicles, Iris-T and Patriot anti-missile systems, Gepard anti-aircraft guns and MLRS. Scholz spoke about the same amount back in May 2023. Now the German government estimates all the assistance it provided to Ukraine (military and humanitarian) at 24 billion euros.

At the same time, military assistance to Ukraine from the EU for the coming years has not yet been approved. We are talking, in particular, about the proposal by EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell to create a special support fund for 2024–2027. with annual expenses of 5 billion euros, which will be discussed by the defense ministers of the association countries on November 14. Reuters, citing sources, reported that the plan in its current form could be rejected as several countries, including Germany, have expressed doubts about committing funds for years to come. Some EU members indicate that they may simply not have enough funds for such a volume of assistance.

In addition, on November 11, Borrell suggested that the countries of the European Union will have to “compensate” for the decrease in assistance to Kyiv from the United States. “EU countries must be politically willing to continue to support Ukraine and offset US aid, which is likely to decline,” he said. Prior to this, Democrats in the US Senate refused to consider a bill approved by the House of Representatives to provide military assistance to Israel without spending on Ukraine.

Most likely, the increase in assistance to Ukraine from Germany is associated with talk that this assistance will decrease from the West both due to the escalation of the situation in the Middle East and because of the modest results of the counter-offensive of the Ukrainian army, notes a researcher at the Center for European Studies MGIMO Artem Sokolov. At the same time, the West cannot openly reduce aid to Ukraine, and therefore various initiatives are put forward there in order to create among external observers the impression that support continues, and in some ways even increases. Berlin’s decision to double military assistance to Ukraine in 2024 is an example of this series, the expert believes.

In addition, this measure exposes Berlin as one of Washington’s reliable allies in Europe, including in the area of ​​maintaining financial discipline in terms of increasing military spending to 2% of GDP. That is, with one action, the ruling German coalition solves several problems at once, concludes Sokolov.

Berlin’s decision is largely explained by the fact that the Americans are gradually reducing military assistance to Ukraine, redirecting their resources to the Middle East, says Alexander Kamkin, senior researcher at the sector for analysis of political changes and identity at IMEMO RAS. Accordingly, the commitment made by Germany, the closest ally of the United States in Europe, will help partially compensate for the shortfall, the expert adds. Indirectly, the decision to double assistance to Kiev is also related to Berlin’s goal to raise military spending to 2% of GDP, but initially NATO sought to ensure that it went specifically to military infrastructure, which, however, is now being revised in favor of arming Ukraine, the expert says.