GDP of the euro area countries in the second quarter showed an increase of 0.3%

The GDP of the euro area countries in the second quarter showed an increase of 0.3% compared to the first three months of the year, according to preliminary data from Eurostat. In the first quarter, growth was zero. In the EU as a whole, on the contrary, after an increase of 0.2%, a zero increase in the indicator is now recorded. In annual terms, growth rates in April-June amounted to 0.6% in the euro area and 0.5% in the EU countries. In the first quarter, in both cases, the figures were higher – 1.1%. Nevertheless, the data for the second quarter turned out to be better than analysts’ expectations, especially against the backdrop of low indicators of activity in the industry (according to the indexes of purchasing managers).

The highest growth compared to the previous quarter was shown by the GDP of Ireland (by 3.3%) and Lithuania (by 2.8%). A decrease in the same indicator was recorded in Sweden (minus 1.5%), Latvia (minus 0.6%), Austria (minus 0.4%) and Italy (minus 0.3%). In Germany, growth rates turned out to be zero, while in the first quarter, a decline in GDP of 0.1% was recorded (in the fourth quarter of last year – by 0.4%). In France, by contrast, growth accelerated from 0.1% to 0.5%. In annual terms, German GDP contracted by 0.1% against a contraction of 0.3% a quarter earlier. In France, the figure remained unchanged (plus 0.9%).

Inflation in the euro area, as reported by Eurostat, continued to decline – in July, the figure was 5.3% against 5.5% a month earlier. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) stood at 5.5%, unchanged from June. Growth in food costs slowed from 11.6% in June to 10.8% in July, while energy prices fell by 6.1% from 5.6% a month earlier. In the service sector, prices increased by 5.6% against 5.4% in June, non-energy industrial goods rose in price by 5% against 5.5%.

Statistical data can put multidirectional pressure on the decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB) – more optimistic growth estimates indicate the possibility of further tightening of monetary policy, while slowing inflation, on the contrary, allows making at least a temporary pause in raising rates. Last week, following the results of the regular meeting, the head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, announced the need to build on the incoming data when determining the further need to raise rates (see Kommersant dated July 28).

Tatyana Edovina