Gazprombank recommended to be included in the list – Kommersant FM

European countries continue to receive gas from Russia, and even those that have refused it. The head of Gazprom, Alexey Miller, stated this, but refused to name specific volumes of supplies, clarifying that they are not small. Meanwhile, Gazprombank, through which payments for Russian fuel are made, risks being subject to European sanctions. At the very least, the European Parliament recommended including the credit institution on the blacklist. Whether the initiative will be accepted by Brussels, in what form and how quickly is still unknown. Before this, neither the US nor the EU imposed sanctions against Gazprombank precisely because of payments for gas. However, the entire top management of the organization was subject to restrictions.

What consequences might the inclusion of Gazprombank in the next sanctions list have for Moscow? “Kommersant FM” discussed this with independent financial expert Andrey Barkhota:

“Six or 12 months ago, the probability of introducing sanctions against Gazprombank was quite low and did not exceed 15-20% simply because this was, as they say, the last frontier. Restrictions, naturally, would complicate payments for supplied energy resources, including natural gas. But at the moment there are already certain decisions and consensuses within the European Union.

Natural gas and all Gazprom products compete very fiercely, including with American liquefied gas and supplies from the Middle East. New sanctions against Gazprombank will be the culmination of sanctions pressure, because they will really complicate settlements. This could squeeze Russian gas producers out of a number of key regions completely.

If sanctions are introduced, the payment and currency channel may collapse. I think the possibility of such a scenario was discussed both within the bank itself and within the government. There are certain scenarios that allow you to neutralize the negative effect and use some other channels. But under alternative scenarios, the costs of such transactions increase. This all has a very strong impact.”

Correspondent credit organizations in some countries no longer accept Gazprombank shipments. Transfers are not accepted to Australia, Canada and New Zealand. In addition to calls for sanctions against the Russian company, Poland and the Baltic countries previously proposed disconnecting Gazprombank from the SWIFT system.

But it will be difficult for European officials to agree on this restriction, believes Stanislav Mitrakhovich, a leading expert at the National Energy Security Fund:

“Italy, Slovakia, and Hungary continue to receive Russian gas. If we take outside the European Union, for example, Serbia. Therefore, at the moment, it would be unprofitable to prohibit them from transactions that go through Gazprombank. It is clear that Poland and the Baltic countries, which themselves have severed gas relations with Russia, have a political agenda; they do not particularly need Gazprombank. And those who need it will say that for now there is no point in limiting transactions through Gazprombank.

A couple of years will pass, Europe may finally refuse to purchase Russian gas, and then it will be possible to turn off Gazprombank. Of course, there are options for how to trade with other countries without SWIFT. This is not some kind of end of the world, but simply a technical tool that makes it possible to simplify translations, make them cheaper and faster. No trade between Russia and China will die without SWIFT, this is absolutely obvious.”

Last week, the European Union began the heating season; gas withdrawal from storage facilities exceeded injection into them for the first time since spring. Fuel reserves in European underground reservoirs are close to 100%. Gazprom continues pumping gas to the continent through Ukraine and along the Turkish stream. In August, the Russian company supplied an all-time record volume along the southern route – more than 50 million cubic meters in a week.

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Ivan Khorushevsky