Gas reserves will not save Europe from its shortage

According to the Association of Gas Infrastructure Operators of Europe, European gas storage facilities are now on average over 85% full. The target threshold of 80%, which must be reached by November 1, has already been overcome by 14 of the 18 EU countries with gas storage. At the same time, according to the European Network of Gas Transportation System Operators (ENTSOG), in September, the share of Russian gas in the total volume of supplies fell to 10%. The shares of other sources increased: liquefied natural gas (LNG) already accounted for 35% of supplies, gas from Norway – 29%, from North Africa – 12%, from the UK – 10%.

Nevertheless, to meet the demand for gas until the end of this year, European countries will need to maintain supplies from Russia or reduce its consumption by an additional 7-12 billion cubic meters. m, which is possible only with a complete or partial shutdown of a number of industries, experts of the consulting company Yakov and Partners calculated. This year, gas demand in Europe will amount to 470 billion cubic meters. m. Domestic production will give 196 billion cubic meters. m, LNG supplies – 135 billion cubic meters. m, supplies through pipelines not from the Russian Federation – 28 billion cubic meters. m, from Russia – 68 billion cubic meters. m (54 billion cubic meters have already been delivered).

According to experts, the estimated consumption of gas by European countries in the coming winter period will amount to 300 billion cubic meters. m. Deliveries will give 194 billion cubic meters. m, storage reserves – 75 billion cubic meters. m, savings at its current pace can reach 19 billion cubic meters. m. Thus, the gas deficit will be equal to 12 billion cubic meters. m. It may be even greater in the event of a colder winter, an increase in demand for LNG in China, accidents or supply disruptions, increasing to 20-30 billion cubic meters. m.

In 2023, the rejection of Russian gas will mean a deficit of 40-60 billion cubic meters for European countries. m even while maintaining the current rate of savings. This is comparable to the annual consumption of gas by France and Poland combined, or to the annual consumption of such industries as the production of fertilizers, petrochemistry, ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy, and mechanical engineering, Yakov and partners note. Now in Europe, 70% of nitrogen fertilizer production capacities have been stopped, aluminum production has been reduced by 25%, steel production has been reduced by 5%, and, as the authors of the study expect, these processes will most likely continue even in the event of a “mild” winter.

Tatyana Edovina