Gas hub liquefies outlines – Kommersant FM
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Türkiye plans to liquefy imported natural gas and sell it abroad. Such intentions are contained in the bill that was submitted to the country’s parliament, writes the Ekonomim newspaper. If it is adopted, the republic could become a world center for the sale of fuel, the publication claims. A year and a half ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed creating a “largest gas hub” in the country for supplies to Europe. The head of the Turkish Ministry of Economy promised that this would happen in 2023, but the project was never launched. Reuters reported that its creation was being delayed due to disagreements over who would run the hub.
How interesting is it for Moscow to supply gas to Turkey so that it can sell it in the form of LNG? “Kommersant FM” discussed this with independent energy expert Dmitry Lyutyagin: “The story related to the Turkish gas hub has actually been discussed for quite a long time from the point of view of pipeline gas, because a large number of routes converge in this country in order to it later entered the European Union.
The second story is that the republic is a center of gravity for pipeline gas and is solving for itself the next task – to form an industry related to liquid fuels, to become one of the players in the LNG market.
A good point is being formed, namely a commercial one, into which exchange trading can also be wrapped up; Turkey can also be made a country where quotes are formed. It’s all about positivity.
On the other hand, the Russian Federation, due to restrictions related to geopolitics, transfers part of its income to Ankara. Meanwhile, we also have our own plans, capacity to develop the LNG market, and there were quite good pipeline gas routes. And today we have abandoned them, in order not to lose any European market as a whole, we are sacrificing by switching to Turkey. That is, we will essentially lose additional products or additional margin.”
Such a project could indeed be financially unprofitable for Russian companies, noted leading expert of the National Energy Security Fund Igor Yushkov: “Turkey is now a major importer of gas. And a liquefaction plant means that you will have exports of this resource. Of course, Ankara implies that it will import cheap gas from Russia, liquefy it and sell it, for example, on the European market. But Turkish companies currently do not have a guaranteed low price.
It is unlikely that Gazprom will agree to sign such a contract in order to guarantee the republic a margin on the European gas market, for example, $300 per 1 thousand cubic meters. It turns out that the Russian corporation must sell it for at least $250, and then they will break even. Ideally, you need to make it even cheaper by at least $60-$80.
Gazprom also understands that a wave of commissioning of new LNG plants around the world will now begin. In the USA, Qatar and Australia, prices may fall to $200 per 1 thousand cubic meters.
And then he will have to give fuel to Turkey at the border for $120? For him it will simply be unprofitable, because he pumps from Yamal to Anapa, then from Anapa via the Turkish Stream. In addition, this liquefaction plant must have more or less adequate volumes, at least 10 billion cubic meters. Accordingly, these volumes will no longer fit into the current gas pipelines from Russia to the republic; it will be necessary to build, for example, the third line of the Turkish Stream.”
At the end of December 2023, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that the implementation of the Turkish hub could begin in 2024, and a road map would be adopted soon. In addition, the Kremlin announced Vladimir Putin’s visit to Turkey in February.
Everything is clear with us – Telegram channel “Kommersant FM”.
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