Galata Bridge in Istanbul began to prepare for an earthquake: will the Russians flinch

– When one of the most suspicious people says that the furniture “vibrated” at his house, I usually answer: “Yes, it’s not an earthquake, it’s just that one of our hopes for obtaining a residence permit collapsed,” relocant Sergey jokes. – In our Istanbul Russian-speaking chat, about once a month, one of the newcomers asks about the earthquake. We have to remind them that talking about the earthquake, as well as about politics, is forbidden here. We are only talking about everyday life here – where to go on the weekends, where it is better to treat teeth …

– Yes, at any moment this earthquake can be! And about this “just about” they write every month. Just hammer it, – Samat from Istanbul with 10 years of experience advises potential tourists. – When I came here in 2013, my relatives dissuaded me. Like, I’m crazy, they say, earthquakes are expected from day to day. I also bought an apartment right on the embankment, where it is most dangerous. And I thought: “All the will of Allah. Let me live for a month – but with a panoramic view of the sea.

But Igor, a remote relocator, is urgently looking for a roommate – you can’t pull an apartment in the city center alone:

– My neighbor was the girl Olya, we got along so well, but after the February earthquake in Turkey, she was replaced. It used to wake up at night, go to the kitchen and sit on the chandelier, looking to see if it was swinging. She reads a lot of seismologists’ forecasts on the Internet and cannot fall asleep. We still have an old house, a crack on the outer wall – this especially frightened her. As a result, Olya could not stand it and left. But I don’t care – you can’t escape fate!

Meanwhile, Turkish seismologist Naji Göryur once again warned fellow citizens about the approaching earthquake. Since 1999, the risk of its onset in the next 30 years has been estimated at 62%. Now 23-24 years have passed, which means that the probability is even higher, because earthquakes of this magnitude happen in Istanbul just about every 30 years. The scientist directly speaks of a “disappointing prospect” and almost all seismologists of the world agree with him. The earthquake on February 6 in the south-east of the country launched the process of energy accumulation in the Anatolian plate even more intensively, and this energy is about to come out. The fault, which will “break through” in the near future, passes under the Sea of ​​​​Marmara, and along it is located the multi-million dollar Istanbul. The areas on the coast will suffer the most – the land there is not so strong.

Görur’s colleague Prof Ghasi Gir also says the quake in the north within the Sea of ​​Marmara is on the way because energy from a plate that moved in February in the country’s southeast has been transferred to nearby faults. It is worth listening to his words, because immediately after the tragedy on February 6, Göryur predicted an earthquake in Hatay, which happened 15 days later with a force of 6.4 points. And the other day Adana was shaking, where tremors of 5.5-5.6 points were recorded – and he also predicted this. The scientist’s forecast for Istanbul: “Minimum 7.2 points, maximum – 7.6.”

“Immediately after the February tragedy, the authorities published the results of research and forecasts for all districts of the city, and anyone could download them,” says the wife of the Turk, Irina. “Our region is located just in the risk zone, it has been assigned the highest seismic hazard, in the report on the map, its entire part is marked in bright red. The document indicates how many residents will receive minor injuries during a powerful earthquake, how many will be hospitalized and, alas, there is even a forecast for the number of deaths. The percentage of houses that will collapse is also indicated. These are old buildings that were built before 2000, without seismic resistance standards. Our house is new and formally considered safe, but I don’t know where the catastrophe will find me. What if it’s in a store? And if the parents of the husband?

The fact that an earthquake is not a horror story, but an inevitable prospect, can also be seen on the embankments of the Sea of ​​Marmara. There every now and then there are stands and signs indicating where to run in the event of a tsunami that can begin after an earthquake. Water will carry away all coastal houses, so vacationers are advised to urgently go upstairs, away from the coast. A tsunami will be a strong drop in the water level. Only it is unlikely that a person without a car will have time to run away from a giant rushing wave …

“The topic of an earthquake in Istanbul is always on the agenda,” Turkish journalist Abdurakhman Kamburoglu told MK. – From the moment the earthquake of 1999 happened, it was in August that those who experienced this trauma then are always very worried and afraid. Türkiye is located on faults and the probability of an earthquake is always there. Not only Istanbul, but also other cities, if anything, will suffer.

– Why then such attention to Istanbul?

– Because this is a populous city and as far as we, the residents, see, there are a lot of questions regarding infrastructure and development. According to the mayor’s office, about 200,000 buildings are at risk. Among them are those that are not suitable for use at all. There are also buildings that need to be rechecked. As for the Galata Bridge, as far as I know, for many years no strengthening and repair work was carried out there. And then the mayor’s office is a little PR. After all, such works always cause dissatisfaction on the part of residents (traffic jams form, people are uncomfortable), and if you say that repairs will simply go on, the reaction will be expected. But if we add to this that the bridge will be strengthened against earthquakes, it sounds different and softens the dissatisfaction of the inhabitants. Plus, the mayor’s office shows this: here, we are working. But was it important to start from the bridge and promote on it? How will he save from an earthquake? In addition, the information that the Galata Bridge is being strengthened before the earthquake causes panic among tourists (which negatively affects the tourism sector) and worries residents. In the city, in any case, one way or another, work is carried out on roads and bridges. If we make a list of objects that need to be strengthened, I think Galata will not even enter the top ten. There are many other issues that need to be addressed.

According to Abdurrahman, one of the pressing issues in Istanbul is the creation of sites where people could be during and after earthquakes. It could also require tenants or building owners to reinforce houses or carry out inspections. It is clear that this is not easy to do in a multi-million city, but one could at least start with those buildings that are at risk.

“Buildings are checked for seismic resistance if the owners themselves apply to the city hall, but after the earthquake there were a lot of such applications and the authorities simply did not have time to work on them,” says the Istanbul journalist. – Also in February, we saw that in the south-east of the country there were problems with the basic delivery of tents. People only on the 3rd, on the 4th day began to receive them, in connection with which the head of the Red Crescent had to resign. Rescuers could not reach those areas where help was needed. And if you are preparing for an earthquake in Istanbul, you must start with the question of how to provide first aid to residents, where they can get drinking water, tents. Previously, in most areas of the city there were containers in which tents and all the help in case of an earthquake were prepared. Now I don’t see them – for some reason they were removed.

The more often Istanbulites are reminded of the risk of an earthquake, the more anxious they become. Those who have the opportunity move to safer areas of the city or to newer ones. Real estate agents notice that it has recently become fashionable to buy land and move into small houses outside the city. It is also in trend to buy apartments in low-rise buildings.

What to do in case of an earthquake if it caught you in Istanbul?

“Usually everyone is asked not to panic, leave their homes, go to a safe space and wait. – says Abdurrahman, – Practice has shown that it is in Turkey that after the first earthquake there are repeated shocks and they can be much stronger than the previous ones. So it was in February in the southeast. With the first push, the building can simply get damaged, and with a second push, it can fall apart. Therefore, no matter what the score was – you need to leave the house and not return to the apartment until the authorities allow it.

Nikolai, a former employee of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, who is now vacationing in Istanbul, says that the common advice “stand in the doorway” should be forgotten.

“On the contrary, this is a very dangerous place, like the stairs in the entrance,” he says. – At the first push, you just need to leave the house and run out to an open place away from the buildings so that you are not hurt by falling debris. But where in the center of Istanbul can you find such a place? The streets are narrow, around are old houses that will fall on you. So it’s better to just stand at home against a load-bearing wall or go to the bath, if there is one. According to statistics, they usually survive in it.

Istanbul residents remember well the confusion that happened in the city less than three years ago, when an earthquake, albeit not deadly, but also tangible, occurred with a power of more than 5 points.

“Then everyone panicked, rushed to go somewhere, to run away,” recalls Abdurakhman Kamburoglu. – Everyone started calling each other at the same time, which caused the mobile connection to disappear for a couple of hours. Large traffic jams formed in the city, and as a result, no one got anywhere. Basically, these were parents who were in a hurry to pick up their children from school, kindergarten. Most of the children did not know how to behave. And despite the fact that Turkey is in the risk zone, there is no special program in schools where children would be taught how to act in case of an earthquake.

Experts advise Istanbul residents and visitors to the city to have a “alarm suitcase” at home, where essential items would be in case an earthquake occurs. These things will help to survive until humanitarian aid arrives.

– As soon as I got married, my Turkish mother-in-law immediately ordered me to make such a “suitcase”, but in fact – a backpack with things, – Irina recalls. – And I did it. Only now my husband and I are sleeping soundly – until we wake up ourselves, until we push the children aside, there will be no time for this “suitcase”.

– What’s in it?

– Copies of documents in a waterproof envelope, a duplicate of the keys to the apartment, medicines (if the expiration date is expired, I update it), water, a flashlight, a whistle, a rope, a set of underwear … But in general, I have a feeling that I’m the only one from our environment that bothers.

“I think that 99% of the residents do not have things prepared for such a day,” says Abdurakhman, “Even I don’t have them … In general, the Galata Bridge is definitely not the first thing the authorities need to think about.

In the meantime, another piece of news has appeared in the Turkish media: Erdogan promised to renovate 6.5 million residential premises in the country as soon as possible – “not only for beauty, but also for security purposes – so that they can withstand earthquakes.” Whether it’s PR or not, it’s better not to check it in practice.