FT: Gref and Nabiullina tried to dissuade Putin from escalating around Ukraine

The Financial Times published materialwhich reports that the head of Sberbank German Gref and the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina, a month before the start of the special operation, tried to dissuade Russian President Vladimir Putin from aggravating the situation around Ukraine.

The article claims that in January 2022, Vladimir Putin’s economic confidants visited the Russian president’s residence in Novo-Ogaryovo near Moscow, where German Gref presented a 39-page report on the “catastrophic consequences” if tensions around Ukraine escalate. At the same time, Gref, according to the sources of the publication, at that time assumed that Vladimir Putin was close to recognizing the DPR and LPR, which, according to the head of Sberbank, led to the introduction of serious sanctions against Russia.

The FT notes that Elvira Nabiullina, head of Sberbank, and other technocrats who attended the event, shared Gref’s concerns that Western sanctions could cause panic on financial risks and negatively affect the Russian economy.

In particular, they warned that GDP could fall by 30% in dollar terms in two years, and inflation would force the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to sharply raise interest rates.

Sources say that during the report, Vladimir Putin interrupted Gref and asked him what needs to be done to avoid the worst of the sanctions. However, at that time, the technocrats did not have a clear solution. According to the publication, representatives of the economic bloc left Putin’s residence without knowing what was planned to be done in a month.

One of the sources said that after the start of the special operation, Gref was in a lost state. “I’ve never seen [Грефа] like this. He was completely lost, in a state of complete shock,” the publication quoted an unnamed interlocutor as saying.

At the same time, the article emphasizes that just four days after the start of the special operation and the introduction of tough Western sanctions against Russia, technocrats again met with the Russian president and offered “skillful economic management skills to defuse the crisis.” Members of the economic bloc managed to ensure that their “own apocalyptic predictions did not come true,” the material says. The authors note that both Gref and Nabiullina cemented the role of Putin’s assistants and used their experience and tools to soften the blow of Western sanctions and strengthen the Russian economy.